It took 25 days, but earlier today Israel responded to Iran’s missile salvo earlier this month. The operation, called “Days of Repentance”, was the most significant attack on Iran by any country since the 1980s. The Iranian regime’s years-long shadow war against Israel has finally brought the violence home; This is something the regime has done repeatedly. I promised He was one of the people he would avoid.

The attacks were serious and likely to cause major damage. At least four officers serving in the missile defense units of the Iranian army were arrested was killed. Still, Iran is relieved that its worst fears did not come true. Mostafa Najafi, a security expert in Tehran with ties to the regime’s elite, told me that the day before the attacks, Israel used intermediaries to warn Iran about this and make sure they would not cause major casualties. He said the attacks were not “as extensive and painful as Israeli officials claim.” Israel did not target Iran’s infrastructure, such as oil and gas refineries, and did not assassinate political or military leaders.

Therefore, Iran has the opportunity to walk away with a response that is weak enough to not invite Israeli retaliation. Iran can stop the tit-for-tat if it is willing to resist harsh voices who want the country to escalate or even expand the conflict.

Read: Iran Not Ready for War with Israel

Life in Tehran quickly returned to normal. On Saturday, the first day of the week in the country, the streets of the city were full of traffic as usual. Although all flights were initially suspended, Tehran’s two main airports have resumed operations.

“I believe Iran will respond to the attacks,” Afifeh Abedi, a security expert in Iran who supports the government, told me. “But I doubt there will be an escalation,” he said. “Regional countries will stop this and the United States will try to manage the situation.”

Abas Aslani of the Tehran-based Middle East Center for Strategic Studies agrees. “The evidence does not currently point to a broader war,” he told me. “But this does not mean that Iran will not respond,” he said.

I also spoke with two senior Iranian politicians, one conservative, the other reformist; Both requested anonymity for fear of retaliation. They said Iran does not currently intend to expand the conflict. A conservative figure close to parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Galibaf told me that Iran and the United States had tacitly agreed to allow a limited Israeli strike and then not have a significant Iranian reaction.

The reformist politician, who previously served at cabinet level, said Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi’s diplomatic efforts helped ensure that Israeli attacks were limited to military targets. Araghchi has visited nearly a dozen nearby countries in the past few weeks and is thought to have asked them to pressure the US and Israel to limit attacks.

There is broad opposition to expanding the conflict across the region. Saudi Arabia condemned He called Israel’s recent attacks on Iran “a violation of its sovereignty and a violation of international laws and norms” and reiterated its “firm position in rejecting the ongoing tensions.” Similar condemnations came from Türkiye, Iraq, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. OmanQatar, Kuwait, JordanAlgeria, Mauritania and further afield Switzerland, Pakistan, Indonesia and the Maldives. Jordan, Israel’s neighbor and which signed a peace agreement 30 years ago today, also confirmed that no Israeli strikers were allowed to use Jordanian airspace. Jordan, which tries to maintain its neutrality, has previously helped Israel defend itself against Iranian drone and missile attacks.

Read: Iran Is Irreconcilable

Iran knows that its future prosperity and success depends on economic development, which is actively harmed by its isolation from the international economy and the current state of war. Yesterday, the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force, a G7 initiative that helps enforce global anti-money laundering rules, announced it would blacklist Iran along with only two other countries, North Korea and Myanmar. US dollar on Saturday sales 680,000 Iranian rials, the highest level in history. These are not problems you can solve by fighting Israel.

Yesterday, in a rare candid moment, Galibaf acknowledged the risks: “Unfortunately, our economy is not as good as our missiles. But it should be so.”

But Iran is still a long way from taking the necessary steps to stop its anti-Israel campaign, overcome its international isolation, and focus on its own domestic problems. Currently, any deviation from anti-Israel orthodoxy provokes a swift backlash from hard-liners. Last month, the Council of Scholars and Instructors at Qom Seminary, a reformist-leaning body of Shiite clergy, issued a statement. expression The declaration condemned Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, called for its “return to its legal borders before the 1967 attack” and called for the “establishment of an independent Palestinian state.” This endorsement of the two-state solution angered hard-liners; some of these called for the seminary’s closure, but the school’s stance defended by the reformist press.

And some hard-liners are clamoring for all-out war with Israel.

“The Zionist regime is in decline and Iran will not let this attack go unanswered,” said Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of the hard-line newspaper. Kayhanhe told me. “Our response will be more determined and overwhelming than ever.”

Shariatmadari is known for his strange statements. Najafi, who tends to be more level-headed, also believes that Iran-Israeli conflicts will continue “in the medium term, especially after the US elections.”

Some supporters of Israel also hope the conflict will escalate. Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. A Washington D.C.-based think tank said in X: Israel now needs to prepare for the “next phase” of its strategy: helping the Iranians overthrow their regime, followed by “outright decapitation attacks.”

As long as Iran’s religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is alive and in power, the country’s attitude towards Israel will not change decisively. But he is 85 years old, and different factions of the regime are already arguing over the future direction of the country in preparation for an eventual succession struggle. Conservatives are not as politically powerful as they used to be. They recently lost the presidency and are being sidelined in other institutions as well.

“People like Shariatmadari are nobody’s business,” the conservative politician told me. “Iran is preparing to change”

Iran can’t change fast enough if it wants to avoid war.