But voters may be punishing incumbents rather than voting for Republicans, said Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas, director of research at the UCLA Institute of Latino Policy and Policy.

“You are reminded every day of these high prices because you buy things every day,” he said. “Hyperinflation was a global phenomenon. It was not specific to the United States. So who was in power when this happened? It was Biden and Harris.”

Latino Community Foundation CEO Julián Castro said Trump’s victory was similar to Ronald Reagan’s victories in 1980 and George W. Bush’s in 2000: All three campaigned against a Democratic administration “facing headwinds,” he said .

“The economy in 1980 looked like 2024, at least in people’s minds,” Castro said. “In 2000, after eight years of Democratic rule, there was a pent-up demand for change.”

But even though they’re disappointed with the economy under the Biden administration, most Latinos who spoke to CalMatters said that doesn’t mean they’ll continue voting Republican.

“I’ll see how things go in the (next) four years,” Izaguirre said.

‘This is not me’

Trump promised to carry out the largest deportation in American history. immigrants who come to the country illegallycriminal record or not.

But Izaguirre and other Latino Trump supporters who spoke to CalMatters said they do not want undocumented immigrants who have been working in the country for years to be deported. The majority supported providing legal status to these immigrants; Democrats also defended this policy.

Trump’s victory frightened some immigrants at the border and undocumented immigrants in California.

“I’m worried because I don’t know what the future is going to be for us, the undocumented people who work here,” an undocumented immigrant in Delano told CalMatters in Spanish. CalMatters is not naming him out of concerns for his safety.

But others said Trump’s mass deportation plan would not affect them.

“He said he would deport people with bad criminal records. This is not me. “I don’t have a bad record,” said a Stanislaus County farm worker who spoke to CalMatters on condition of anonymity, saying he came to the country 20 years ago by paying “coyotes” (a term for smugglers).

Huesgew Mendoza likened Trump’s mass deportation to a theater fire. “It sounds so scary, so big,” he said.

And Aaron Barajas, 46, who voted for Trump in his first presidential election this year, slammed policies that would “separate people from their families.” He argues that those already established in the United States should be allowed to obtain legal documents. But he distinguished between those who already live here and those who want to come here, and argued that Trump just wants to “bring people to our country, but do it the right way.”

Suro said it appears that Trump’s rhetoric on immigration did not deter Latinos from voting for him, contrary to the assumption Democrats made after the passage of Proposition 187.

“The hypothesis was that when you are faced with threats to the immigrant population, xenophobic rhetoric, and harsh exclusionary measures against immigrants… you will alienate Latinos,” he said. “Trump has very clearly proven the opposite.”

Castro said this was partly due to “scapegoating” by Trump and his allies, who “physically targeted immigrants at the border” for mass deportation. “They separated the newcomers from the people who had been here a long time, and so I think you heard people expressing confidence that he didn’t mean them.”

Another factor may be the rapidly changing demographics of Latinos in California. Young US-born Latinos get the right to voteexperts say.

“Overall, there are fewer Latinos who are as close to the immigrant experience as they used to be,” said Mindy Romero, founder and executive director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy. “How close you are to the immigrant experience can directly impact how you view domestic policy (immigration efforts) and policy around the border (immigration).”

Anti-immigrant sentiment may even appeal to some Latino voters, Dominguez said, who are “fueled by a deep desire to assimilate or be seen as belonging to the broader American culture and to differentiate themselves from those seen as outsiders.” Villegas at UCLA.

Referendum for Democrats?

While it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions from the election, the takeaway for Democrats is that they need to get better at reaching Latino voters; political consultants, something both major parties have failed at in California.

Madrid said California Democrats are “in danger of losing Latino support in the long run” due to more than a decade of “bad branding.”

But he added: “There is little evidence to suggest that Latinos are becoming more conservative. “There’s a lot to suggest that they’re becoming more populist.”

Michael Gomez Daly, a senior strategist at the progressive California Donor Table, said Democrats are unsure how best to counter the backlash facing voters hurt by inflation and emphasized that voters may remember Trump through “rose-tinted glasses.”

But he said Trump has proven “inspiring” among Latino voters, even with his “problematic” rhetoric. Gomez Daly, who lives in the 41st Congressional District where GOP Rep. Ken Calvert narrowly defeated Democrat Will Rollins, said she sees conservative YouTube ads targeting young men all the time.

“I think Democrats need to recognize the economic situation that a lot of interior California is facing and talk to those issues and give people hope,” he said. “I think that’s missing.”

Data reporter for CalMatters Jeremiah Kimelman contributed to this story.