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Ishiba survives rare runoff to remain Japan’s prime minister but faces turmoil
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Ishiba survives rare runoff to remain Japan’s prime minister but faces turmoil

TOKYO — Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishibabattered parliamentary elections last monthHe survived a rare second-round vote against the opposition to remain the country’s leader but still faces turmoil ahead.

One of her top priorities is coping with the aftermath of an event. Major corruption scandal in the long-ruling Liberal Democratic PartyDozens of MPs from the party allegedly pocketed profits from event ticket sales as kickbacks.

Ishiba also now has a very courageous opposition willing to implement policies long blocked by the LDP. His cabinet’s approval ratings have fallen to around 30%.

Here’s a look at what’s happening in Japan’s tumultuous politics and what it might mean for Ishiba and his government as they prepare for a second term as president-elect of the United States Donald Trump.

A parliamentary vote on a new leader is mandatory within 30 days of a general election. In the past, this was mostly ignored because the LDP’s leader usually had a majority in the Lower House, the most powerful of Japan’s two-chamber parliament.

This time, however, Monday’s runoff election could not be avoided as Ishiba’s LDP and its junior coalition partner lost their majority in the last election; This is the first time this has happened in 30 years.

Senior opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda noted that almost half of the lower house executive committees are now run by the opposition. This is a huge change from the pre-election dominance of the LDP, which controlled all but three of the 27 committees.

“We will have a new landscape in Japanese politics,” Noda said.

Twelve committees in key areas, including the budget, political reforms, national security and legal affairs, will be chaired by Noda’s Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and two other main opposition groups.

What is certain is that the era of unilateral rule by the LDP is over for now, and the opposition has a chance to implement policies long opposed by ruling conservatives, including on issues such as gender equality and diversity.

Last Friday, Noda said a legal committee chaired by his party’s gender equality chief Chinami Nishimura was aiming to push through a civil code revision that would allow married couples the option of using separate surnames. This change has been stalled by LDP conservatives for 30 years, despite widespread support from the public and the United Nations panel on discrimination against women.

Yuichiro Tamaki is the chairman of the conservative Democratic People’s Party, which quadrupled its number of seats in the elections to 28. The vote elevated his party from a fringe group to a major player.

He is now held up as the potential key to Ishiba’s survival.

Tamaki, 55, a Harvard-educated former Ministry of Finance bureaucrat, has achieved success by pressing for an increase in the basic tax-free income allowance and increased take-home pay. His messages on social media appealed to young voters long ignored by the LDP’s policies toward conservative elders.

Ishiba apparently sees Tamaki’s 28-member DPP as an attractive partner to gain a majority. The two parties, which have common ground in some areas, including support for greater use of nuclear energy and a stronger military, have begun policy talks.

Ishiba met with both Tamaki and Noda on Monday, but Tamaki may be wary of getting too close to the scandal-plagued LDP ahead of another election next year. Noda is trying to build a united opposition to force a change of government, which he said is his next goal.

According to Ishiba, the “hung parliament” requires gaining opposition forces in order to implement its policies. While it is seen as unstable, it could also provide a chance for more consensual policymaking, experts say.

“I positively evaluate the current situation as a chance for the voice of our opposition to be heard more carefully,” Tamaki said.

Ishiba also faces challenges in restoring unity within his own party. A number of senior LDP MPs expect to oust Ishiba, but while their priority is to reconsolidate their footing, not infighting, no one is willing to do damage control at this difficult time anyway.

“The (Ishiba) administration is quite unstable. … Every time he wants to get a bill approved, he will have to cooperate with opposition parties, which could lead to policies stalling,” said Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo.

And even if Ishiba survives politically in the coming months, there may be a call for his replacement to be appointed ahead of the next election.

“Japan is likely to return to a short-lived period of government,” Uchiyama said.

Ishiba congratulated Trump hours after his victory, and in a brief phone call they agreed to work closely together to further develop their alliance.

While experts say Trump understands the importance of U.S.-Japan relations, he may pressure Japan to pay more for the cost of 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan or buy more expensive American weapons, as he did during his first administration.

Trump’s possible tariff proposals could also hurt Japanese exporters.

Ishiba on Saturday reiterated his pledge to pursue an ongoing military build-up plan under a strategy that calls for a counter-strike capability with long-range cruise missiles. He has long advocated for a more equal Japan-US security alliance, but he may face difficulties in implementing those plans.

“It will be a great experiment to see if a national unity government can get Japan through until the next election,” said Michael Cucek, an expert on Japanese politics at Temple University in Japan.

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