ANALYSIS — The 2024 elections would diminish a party, and voters called Democrats to the carpet. It will be days before final results are available, and possibly weeks to fully understand what happened, but there are more than a few things that can be said in the wake of the election.

make history

Donald Trump will be the first person elected president after defeat since Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s. Trump is also the oldest person ever elected president (older than Biden is in 2020). And Trump is the first convicted felon to be elected president.

It wasn’t a surprise

Unlike 2016, no one was making definitive statements about who would be elected president in 2024. National polls showed an even race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with the candidates deadlocked in seven swing states. Only fools were ignoring Trump’s victory.

We even wrote about how it could feel like a landslide if the election swung a few points in one direction and one candidate swept swing states. Trump may not sweep them away, but he’s getting close. Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan Trump was called out by the Associated Press. Arizona and Nevada were not called by the AP. Without these states, Trump has 295 Electoral College votes. (He scored 304 points in the 2016 win.)

But it was some kind of surprise

What was surprising was the breadth of Trump’s victory across many demographics. Compared to four years ago, it has improved among nearly all types of voters. Trump appeals to various minority voters, young voters, men, etc. He made a profit between . The media might have tried to pinpoint a specific demographic as the catalyst for Trump’s victory, but that was broad.

Before Election Day, Trump appeared politically stuck. He received 46.1 percent of the vote nationally in his 2016 win, 46.8 percent of the vote nationally in his 2020 loss, and 46.8 percent of the vote in 2020. National poll average of 538. But Trump is running close to 51 percent in the current count. He could become the first GOP presidential candidate to win the popular vote in 20 years, since President George W. Bush was re-elected in 2004. He scored big wins in big states like Texas and Florida and came surprisingly close to winning blue states. New Jersey, where Harris is ahead by just 5 points.

GOP Senate

As expected, Republicans took control of the Senate. They needed to win two seats for a majority and they needed to win at least four seats. That could rise even further with wins in Arizona and Nevada in races not reported by the Associated Press. With these key races still pending, the finale could fall within our likely projection of a two- to four-seat Republican gain, or Republican gains could slightly exceed that.

Making history at the congress

Democrats Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland and Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware will be the first two Black women to serve together in the Senate. And Delaware Democrat Sarah McBride will be the first transgender member of Congress.

The fight for the parliament continues

An important part of the 65 House race Rated competitive by Inside Elections has not yet been sought out by a major media outlet. Up to this point the races have fallen as expected with a few exceptions. Pennsylvania Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright lost reelection in tilt-Democratic-rated races as Election Day approached.

There are more than 20 races remaining, and the House’s overall order could range from Republicans gaining one seat to Democrats gaining nine seats within our likely projections. Democrats need to win four seats for a majority.

using AP Data compiled by reporter Jamie DupreeRepublicans have won or are leading 221 seats, while Democrats have won or are leading 214 seats. This would not be a net change in the House of Representatives and would be within the range we predicted before the election. But Republicans could still gain a seat or two.

Who is to blame?

Although Harris is on track to be decisively defeated by Trump, it would be short-sighted for Democrats to place the blame solely on the vice president’s shoulders.

While Harris’s replacement of President Joe Biden at the top brought a new breath to the Democrats’ chances of winning, Biden’s unpopularity and the voters’ negative impact on the economy and the course of the country were still on his shoulders. About 63 percent of voters said the country was heading in the wrong direction, while only 27 percent said it was heading in the right direction. RealClearPolitics national average. These are difficult figures for the party in power to overcome.

Trump also took advantage of collective amnesia across the country. Accordingly Gallup at the end of SeptemberA majority of Americans believed their families were worse off now than they were four years ago. This is quite remarkable considering the country is still struggling in a pre-vaccine pandemic stance. unemployment It was at 6.7 percent in October 2020, compared to 4.1 percent last month, and 1,200 Americans were dying from Covid-19 every day in November 2020.

But voters’ perceptions are more important than reality. And I have no doubt that Trump is taking advantage of the distance between the end of his presidency and the 2024 election. How do I know? If Americans had been this happy with Trump’s first four years in office, he wouldn’t have lost to Biden by 7 million votes.

Democrats should take this opportunity and have a broader conversation about the brand of the party, what the party stands for, what it is known for, and who will lead the party moving forward because there appears to be a gulf between Democrats and the majority of voters right now.

Changing coalitions

Yes, Trump has made inroads among all types of voters and was elected with perhaps the most diverse coalition of voters for a Republican in recent history. However, I believe this is not a permanent change for either side, but rather a dynamic specific to Trump. I’m not sure this coalition can easily be handed over to another candidate after Trump is gone.

We’ve seen everyone who tries to be Trump fail over the last few years. They look rude or stupid compared to the original. But we won’t really know until an election where Trump isn’t on the ballot, in the White House, or a major part of the conversation.

At the very least, Trump’s victory will encourage other politicians to emulate his brash style and even aggressive rhetoric. If voters didn’t specifically reward Trump for his words, they certainly didn’t punish him.

Trump is Trump

Trump’s resilience is unparalleled in American politics, past and future. His pre-established brand as a successful outsider supersedes almost any wrongdoing because voters have such a low opinion of politicians and government, and Americans objectify celebrities. There is no other politician who can withstand more than 90 federal indictments, more than 30 felony convictions, convoluted speeches and awkward stage moments.

Despite being a candidate and politician for nearly a decade, Trump is seen as an agent of change and an obstructionist at a time when voters are dissatisfied. As veteran political analyst Bruce Mehlman explains, change is the norm. This is the sixth election in a row We go back to 2014, when at least one seat in the House, Senate or White House changed party hands.

Authority?

“America has given us unprecedented and powerful authority,” Trump said as he basked in victory on stage early Wednesday morning. Requesting power of attorney is a rite of passage for the winning party.

But while his victory was far-reaching, I’m not convinced that the majority of voters understand what mass deportation looks or feels like. Or voters want the January 6 rioters to be pardoned. Or Republicans overhauling the Affordable Care Act. Or using the Justice Department against political enemies. Or get rid of fluoride in water. Or ban vaccines.

More voters had confidence in Trump as a leader compared to Harris, but the results felt more like a rejection of the Democratic brand than a desire to pursue Trump’s most vindictive goals.

We are looking at 2026

While the dust is still settling on the 2024 elections, the foundations of the 2026 midterm elections have also been determined. Trump’s surprising strength in blue states could put a target on the backs of Democrats in New Jersey and Illinois; This includes likely new member Nellie Pou in New Jersey’s 9th District. This seat would vote for Biden by 26 points in 2020, but Pou maintains his lead by less than 5 points. New York Rep. Tom Suozzi also can’t rest after defeating an underfunded GOP opponent by 2 points, with Trump likely carrying his district based on his growing strength in Nassau County.

However, Trump saw a major defeat for Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, and his plans for a second administration could spark even more severe political backlash, so Democrats will also be on the offensive — perhaps not in Florida or GOP-based Texas. Gerrymanders and positive political trends have dashed Democratic hopes in two consecutive cycles.

Democrats face another tough cycle in the Senate, and depending on how the races play out, the party could slip away from the majority. Maine and North Carolina are probably the best buying opportunities, and in a favorable cycle, Iowa, Texas and Alaska could become interesting races. But the party will be on the defensive in Minnesota, Michigan and Georgia.

Perhaps the most interesting race of the next term will be in Ohio, where a special election will be held to replace Vice President-elect J.D. Vance. Tuesday’s results showed Democrats as the underdog in the Buckeye State, but the political landscape could be very different a year into the second Trump administration.

The House of Representatives will be the focus of the 2026 elections, with the Senate potentially out of reach for Democrats.

The system worked

As always, we had a free and fair election. It is notable that the only times in recent history when there have been allegations of rigged elections and widespread fraud have been when two people lost: Trump in the 2020 presidential election and Republican Kari Lake in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election.

Republicans had been sowing the seeds of distrust in the system and the election for weeks leading up to November 5, with Trump even claiming the Pennsylvania vote was rigged early on election night, but all those concerns somehow evaporated when he won.

Republicans, on the other hand, have tried to argue that their election integrity efforts or tantrums over fraud are on par with Democrats. But this is not the case. No serious Democrat has any doubt about the 2024 results, and Harris graciously bowed to Trump on Wednesday afternoon.

No two parties are the same when it comes to protesting election results. There was enough concern about post-election violence in Washington that some storefronts were boarded up in select areas. No violence has occurred and boardings are already departing.

The death of polls?

Has Trump driven a stake through the heart of the polls? Maybe and maybe not. Although the polls clearly show that Trump’s victory is possible, many polls appear to have underestimated Trump’s support for the third year in a row.

It was also the lack of polls that led to Trump’s surprisingly strong performance being “missed.” If we had done more polls in Illinois, New Jersey, or other Democratic places where Trump overperformed, at least some of those polls would likely point to a stronger-than-usual Republican performance from Trump.

As we look ahead to 2026, it’s important to remember that polls in 2018 and 2022 were more accurate (especially when Trump wasn’t on the ballot); but pollsters will likely do some soul-searching about methodologies once again.