As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House after his resounding victory in the US presidential election, India is feeling optimistic about the ties between the two countries that present both opportunities and challenges in various fields.

Trump shared warm relations with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his first term, but this time the geopolitical landscape looks more complex than before.

It is unclear how the two leaders will address issues such as Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s growing influence in Asia, migration and bilateral trade.

Diplomats and foreign policy experts expressed both optimism and caution, emphasizing that ties between the two countries should not be taken for granted given Trump’s unpredictable leadership style.

Modi-Trump bond

Immediately after Trump’s victory in the US elections, Modi congratulated the Republican Party candidate and described him as “my friend”.

“As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our cooperation to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let us work for the betterment of our people and promote global peace, stability, and prosperity,” the Indian prime minister said on his social media platform He shared a post on X.

Modi and Trump are known for prioritizing their “personal relationships” with world leaders over other matters.

In September 2019, they showcased their friendship by holding the “Hello Modi” event in Houston, where Trump addressed nearly 50,000 Indian Americans, marking a pivotal moment in US-India relations.

This was followed by a “Namaste Trump” event held in the Indian state of Gujarat in February 2020, where Trump promised to strengthen US-India ties.

The Republican politician praised Modi during the 2024 election campaign, calling him the “best person” and “friend” in a podcast.

“Our (India’s) relationship with the United States will only grow, regardless of the election results,” Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said earlier this week. he said.

Speaking on the sidelines of the India-Australia Foreign Ministers’ Framework Dialogue in Canberra, Jaishankar pointed out that India-US ties have not only survived but also thrived across five different presidencies.

Countering China’s influence

Jaishankar’s confidence in maintaining close relations with Washington stems from the two countries’ common goal: to contain China in the Indo-Pacific region.

How will Harris and Trump handle trade with China?

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During Modi’s visit to the US in June last year, India and the US signed new defense agreements that allowed New Delhi to purchase $20 billion (€18.3 billion) worth of military equipment and new defense technologies.

For years, China has been at the center of the US relationship with India.

“Trump will likely intensify the conflict with China while deepening geopolitical relations with India and the QUAD (a group of countries comprising the US, India, Japan and Australia),” Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian diplomat, told DW.

“As a result, New Delhi may attract more global supply chains and private investments. Defense and technology partnership is likely to gain momentum,” he added.

Bisaria said, “Under the Trump administration, the United States may be more sympathetic to India’s concerns in South Asia. If Trump manages to end the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, this will be to India’s benefit. He may even want to include India in this effort. ” he said.

Trade ties and migration

While security ties between New Delhi and Washington will likely remain stable, the same cannot be predicted for trade relations during Trump’s second term.

Foreign policy expert C Raja Mohan believes that Trump’s ‘America first’ policy could lead to increased tariffs on Indian exports, which could particularly impact the IT, pharmaceutical and textile sectors.

“Trump has previously labeled India as the ‘customs king’ and stated his intention to implement a reciprocal duty system if re-elected, which would further complicate trade dynamics between the two countries,” said Mohan, who is also an adjunct professor at the Singapore Institute of Commerce. ” South Asian Studies told DW:

“Trump’s second presidency underscores a complex environment for India, marked by grave risks on trade and migration,” he added.

Trump’s big plans for the second term

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Meera Shankar, India’s former envoy to the US, told DW that the broad strategic trajectory of India-US relations can be expected to continue without major deviations under Trump, but Trump’s overall foreign policy may be more isolationist and protectionist.

“Several trade issues between India and the US have surfaced during his first term, and given that the US is our largest export market for goods and services, trade frictions may re-emerge which India needs to address pragmatically,” Shankar stressed.

The United States is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $190 billion annually.

It is feared that Trump may impose heavy taxes on Indian exports, which could hurt India’s domestic businesses.

Mohan Kumar, another former ambassador to India, said New Delhi needed to “understand and manage Trump” on trade issues.

“Trump could make the most important partnership in the world even more important. This is especially true in the areas of defense and even immigration, where India is dealing with the issue of legal immigration,” Kumar told DW.

Would India choose Harris?

Former envoy Shankar believes Democratic Party candidate Kamla Harris, who is of part Indian descent, would have made history had she won the November 5 election.

“But we are aware that he is an American for the first time. The American people have made a firm decision and we accept it,” he said.

Kumar said there was not much disappointment in India about Harris’ defeat: “Many people in New Delhi were secretly hoping that Trump would win because there would be less pressure from the US on democracy and human rights, and there would be more cooperation with Trump.” “There would be too much strategic rapprochement.” in question.

Edited by: Şamil Şems