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Rafael likely to enter Gulf as hurricane, local concerns low

Harry November 5, 2024

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) – Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday afternoon and looks set to move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and is expected to become the 11th hurricane within the next day.

Chasing the Tropics: Monday, November 4(WAFB)

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Monday afternoon shows that it will follow a general northwesterly path over the next few days, with the storm coming very close to the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and near or over western Cuba on Wednesday. Strengthening is expected and NHC does not rule out rapid intensification. As of Monday, the outlook shows it will reach western Cuba at Category 2 intensity.

Rafael is expected to enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane late Wednesday. Beyond this, forecast confidence decreases significantly. Model solutions extend from a line extending to the Florida Peninsula to as far south and west as Mexico. Details regarding the high pressure east of Rafael and its interaction with an upper-level trough approaching from the west have not yet been resolved. But these will be key features in guiding the storm as it moves across the Gulf later this week.

So what are the implications for those of us living in South Louisiana? First of all, our local level of concern remains low. Although the official forecast track shows Rafael near or just south of Louisiana by this weekend, there’s still a good chance it will remain to our east or south. Additionally, even as the North moves into the Gulf, conditions are expected to be much more hostile and significant weakening will likely occur. For now, keep watching the trends; We should have a better idea of its future by mid-week. I’m not expecting a major impact at this time as it relates to Saturday’s LSU-Alabama game, but we’ll still have to watch the trends.