The tropical depression may strengthen into a tropical storm and enter the Philippine Area of ​​Responsibility by Monday, November 4.

MANILA, Philippines – A low pressure area formed outside the Philippine Area of ​​Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression at 2 pm on Sunday, November 3.

As of 4 p.m., the tropical depression was still outside PAR, located 1,315 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas.

It is moving relatively quickly to the northwest at 30 kilometers per hour (km/h) and could enter PAR at this speed on Monday, November 4.

Once in PAR, it will become the country’s 13th tropical cyclone in 2024 and local name Marce.

The tropical depression is so far experiencing maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 70 kilometers per hour.

In a statement issued after 5 pm on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the potential Marce will continue to move northwestward until Tuesday, Nov. 5, “before it begins to slow down significantly as it turns further north.” ”

Starting Wednesday, November 6, it may head north first over the Philippine Sea east of Northern Luzon and then west at a “slow speed.” However, PAGASA said there was “high uncertainty” in this part of the forecast and it was “likely to change” because there are currently two possible scenarios:

1. The tropical cyclone will move more westward, towards extreme Northern Luzon or mainland Luzon
2. Tropical cyclone will “move erratically” over the Philippine Sea east of extreme Northern Luzon

In terms of intensity, it may develop into a tropical storm before entering PAR; A severe tropical storm early Tuesday; and a typhoon early Wednesday.

As for precipitation, PAGASA said the tropical depression may increase the increase of northeasterly wind flow or winds from the northeast.

The northeast wind flow and potential Marce’s trough or extension may trigger rain in extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern part of Luzon starting Monday or Tuesday.

However, the weather bureau warned the public that if the tropical cyclone’s forecast track changes to a “more landfalling scenario”, it could directly cause heavy and torrential rains in Northern Luzon starting on Thursday, November 7, or Friday, November 8.

Floods and landslides are possible, especially in hazard-prone areas and areas that have received heavy rainfall in recent days, as the soil may already be saturated. Northern Luzon affected Leon (Kong-rey)Super typhoon that peaked in the last days of October.

PAGASA added that if the tropical cyclone increases the northeasterly wind flow in the coming days, conditions along the coast of Northern Luzon and the western and eastern coasts of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon will worsen.

The weather bureau noted that the northeasterly wind flow is currently causing moderate to rough seas off the coast of Northern Luzon.

ALSO IN RAPLER

Only isolated rain is seen across the country on Sunday ahead of the tropical cyclone’s entry into PAR.

Batanes and Babuyan Islands are influenced by the northeasterly wind flow, while Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Aurora, Quezon, and the rest of the Cagayan Valley are influenced by easterly winds or warm winds from the Pacific Ocean.

In the rest of the Philippines, localized showers are the cause of isolated showers. –Rappler.com