As the election approaches, many people go to the polls to evaluate the current state of the race. But before you get overwhelmed by analyzing complex data, it’s important to remember that surveys are just snapshots in time. Some voters who say they intend to participate may ultimately choose not to participate, while voters who claim they will not participate may ultimately continue to vote.

Current polls show a tight race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. Both candidates have a vested interest in keeping the polls competitive, relying on those numbers to energize their supporters. If polls show a clear lead for one candidate, the predicted loser may see a decline in voter turnout, disheartened by the apparent hopelessness of their situation. Conversely, if a candidate is ahead by a large margin, their supporters may become complacent, believing that victory is guaranteed without their participation.

Focusing on swing states

Because the Electoral College determines the presidency in the United States, this analysis examines pollsters who accurately predicted election results in six key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If we preserve the 2020 election map by excluding the Electoral College votes in these six states, Democrats will receive 232 votes and Republicans will receive 219 votes.

Marist College in Arizona and Pennsylvania

In 2020, Marist College correctly predicted that Joe Biden would win Arizona. This year, the last poll of the state of the race in Arizona found Donald Trump with a slight lead, but that was within the margin of error. However, pollsters noted that Kamala Harris had a ten-point lead among independent voters.

As for Pennsylvania, Marist College found Kamala Harris with a two-point lead over Donald Trump, but those results are still within the margin of error. In 2020, this predicted a win for Joe Biden in the state.

Quinnipiac in Georgia

In mid-October 2020, Quinnipiac University pollsters It showed Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump by a margin of 51 to 44 percent. He won the Peach State by 0.23 percent of the vote.

Quinnipiac’s latest survey, Released October 16, 2024It showed Trump seven points ahead of Harris; This was almost the exact opposite result of what pollsters reported in 2020. The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points, meaning Trump has a statistically significant lead over Harris according to this poll.

AtlasIntel in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin

AtlasIntel was one of the most effective pollsters in predicting the results of many state elections in 2020, including Michigan and North Carolina. In Michigan, the agency reported that Biden led Trump by 2 points in 2020. This year’s poll shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 1 point, which is within the margin of error.

Nearly every major pollster got North Carolina wrong in 2020, but with Trump winning by 1.34 percentage points, it was anyone’s race.

AtlasIntel predicted in late October 2020 that Donald Trump would win by a two-point margin over his opponent. Currently, the same organization shows Donald Trump with a four-point lead, according to polls taken between October 30-31, with a two-point lead based on polls taken between October 30 and 31. The poll’s margin of error was three percentage points, meaning AtlasIntel’s data shows Trump ahead outside of that range.

The group correctly predicted that Biden would win Wisconsin in 2020, and its latest polls show: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are so close it’s impossible To say that both candidates have a significant lead.