Former President Donald Trump drew examination Due to the escalation in recent weeks of rhetoric threatening political opponents with retribution if they oppose selected to the second period. The comments alarmed some officials who served with him for the first time, such as former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff John Kelly.

Earlier this month, Trump described Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi as “enemies from within.”

“These are bad people. We have a lot of bad people. But when you look at ‘Shifty Schiff’ and some of the others, yes, they are enemies from within to me,” Trump told Fox News on October 20.

While Trump’s comments encourage a renewed focus on democracy, Gallup poll He showed earlier this month that the economy was still voters’ top concern.

But some academics who study the link between political systems and economic performance told ABC News that a strong distinction between democracy and economics is misguided.

“People who are interested in making a large investment will be less likely to do so unless they find favor with the president,” Thomas Pepinsky, a professor of government and public policy at Cornell University, told ABC News. “There will be those who will benefit from this, but the average American will lose.”

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If Trump follows through on his threats to crack down on political rivals, media outlets and some government agencies, he risks scaring investors, swamping businesses with uncertainty and alienating workers, experts said. This, they added, could reduce economic growth, increase the likelihood of an economic downturn, and harm the financial situations of ordinary people.

Some experts said the impact could be minimal in the short term but could grow significantly over time, while also acknowledging the difficulty of predicting the extent to which existing checks and balances could constrain Trump.

“If Trump suddenly threatened the rule of law, you wouldn’t have an immediate economic recession,” Daron Acemoglu, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-author of “Why Nations Fail,” told ABC News.

“But you face huge uncertainty and this has economic consequences,” Acemoglu added. “If Trump’s favored companies can expect to get a private deal and others can’t compete, it’s a slippery slope.”

Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore rebuked the idea that democracy would weaken during Trump’s second term. Instead, he added, the economy will perform well, just as it did during Trump’s first term.

“I’d rather look at his performance in office than speculate about how he might undermine democracy,” Moore told ABC News. “We had a growing economy.”

“I think the markets will react very, very positively if Trump wins,” Moore added.

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In response to ABC News’ request for comment, the Trump campaign shared a statement from a representative of the Republican National Committee (RNC).

“Kamala is a continuation of Biden’s failed economic policies, and they have left our economy in shambles. Kamala Harris has destroyed America’s economy, our national security, and world peace, but President Trump will fix that with his first policies toward America,” the RNC spokesperson said. Anna Kelly told ABC News.

Trump threatened to use the Justice Department sue Political opponents, including Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump says Harris should be impeached and tried in question at a rally last month. He also suggested revoking the licenses of media organizations he disliked.

Trump continues to make false claims, denying the outcome of the 2020 presidential election and has repeatedly attempted to cast doubt on the validity of the upcoming presidential election should he lose.

The potential erosion of government and civilian institutions under the Trump presidency could cause investors to second-guess whether they want to do business in the United States, experts said. Trump hinted take away Some independence from the Federal Reserve could further increase uncertainty about the nation’s interest rates. Meanwhile, experts added that Trump could treat companies that do well under his administration more favorably, putting other organizations at a disadvantage even if they are more competitive.

“This will create a huge amount of uncertainty about what rules apply and to whom they apply,” Steven Hahn, a New York University history professor and author of “Iliberal America: A History,” told ABC News. “This would have huge consequences for the economic life of the country.”

By some fiscal measures, uncertain U.S. policies have already negatively impacted the country’s financial foundation. Last year, rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded It is stated that the increasing US debt burden and the weakening of the administration, as well as the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, were also effective in granting a US loan for the second time in the country’s history.

After studying more than 50 populist leaders since 1900, German researchers Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch found that after a populist leader took office, the country’s economy grew 10% slower than normal in the following 15 years. Otherwise, according to an article published American Economic Review In December.

a separate to work In 2019, democratization increased a country’s gross domestic product by about 20% over the long term, according to researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Columbia University.

“The evidence is pretty clear,” Vanessa Williamson, a senior fellow in management studies at the left-leaning Brookings Institution, told ABC News. “Democracy is pretty good for an economy, and authoritarian regimes do worse than they otherwise would.”

However, there are exceptions. India, one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, has seen its ranking in the global Democracy Index decline since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014. China’s economy has grown rapidly over the past three decades under authoritarian rule, but economic expansion has slowed in recent years.

“Sometimes non-democratic countries have shown incredible growth, but these examples are rare,” Williamson said.

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What is unknown, of course, is whether Trump will implement his proposed agenda if elected. It is also unknown to what extent such actions may be challenged or resisted by others, including Congress, the courts, and other institutions.

“Even if Republicans win Congress, they won’t have 60 votes in the Senate,” said Moore, Trump’s economic adviser, pointing to the threshold of support needed to overcome the filibuster in the Senate.

Some experts also acknowledged that the economy performed reasonably well during Trump’s first term, even as the administration took steps seen as testing democratic norms.

“Trump’s first term was chaotic, disorganized and bad for some institutions, but I fear his second term will be worse,” Acemoglu said.

In theory, the market itself could serve as a check on Trump’s plans, experts said. The negative market reaction helped unseat then-British Prime Minister Liz Truss in 2022.

The fiscal plans put forward by Truss caused the value of the country’s currency to fall while bond yields rose. A few weeks after taking office and amid heated criticism from both his rivals and members of his own party, Truss resigned.

A dramatic market reaction could limit Trump’s plans, but he could instead prioritize consolidation of power, which could lessen the impact of the fiscal response, Pepinsky said.

“For most politicians, if the market signals to them that something isn’t going to work, they change course,” Pepinsky added. “Trump is not a normal politician.”

Trump presidency could hurt the economy if it weakens democracy, experts say originally appeared abcnews.go.com