Israeli army on October 4 announced It was stated that two soldiers were killed in the drone attack carried out by Iraqi armed groups on the Golan Heights. This attack reverberated throughout Iraq and marked the first lethal attack by these groups against Israel. According to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, since the Gaza conflict broke out in early October 2023, various pro-Iran Iraqi militia groups have started More than 200 attacks were launched against US and Israeli targets stationed in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for perceived US support for Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

Before the death of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah Claims of militia attacks on Israel in late September were often met with skepticism in Iraqi and regional media due to the lack of reliable evidence of any impact. Following Nasrallah’s death in late September, Iraqi groups shifted their focus almost entirely to Israel and significantly increased the frequency, pace and intensity of their attacks. initialization at least six dozen drone and missile strikes against Israeli targets. Following Israel’s last attacks against Iranian targets on October 26, Iraqi groups continue their attacks on Israeli regions, and it remains unclear whether Iran will directly retaliate against Israel. Through these actions, Iraqi armed groupsThey have positioned themselves as important fighters in the intensifying conflict with the Iranian-led “Islamic Resistance” organized under the banner of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq”.Resistance Axis” and Israel.

These groups operate They have a dual capacity: officially, they are part of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a key component of the state’s military-security apparatus established during the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) in the mid-2010s. They also exist in a gray zone due to transnational movements aligned with Iran’s regional ambitions. Notably, many of these Shiite groups within Hashd al-Shaabi were initially established and supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); This positioned them as important actors in Tehran’s network of regional influence.

The escalation of violence by these militias, which operate outside Iraq’s official state policy, threatens to drag the country into a wider regional conflict and endangers its already fragile stability. The shift in focus towards Israel is particularly notable because it Call Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on October 4 was urging the pro-Iran front to “tighten the belt of defence” in the conflict against Israel. Underlining the synchronization between the militia’s actions and Tehran’s strategic goals, these militias launched the deadly drone attack on the Golan Heights on this very day. These groups are a critical part of Iran’s broader strategy:unite the frontsA strategy to counter Israel that includes proxy forces across the region in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.

The Iraqi government has been largely ineffective in preventing the activities of these militias. Despite the Prime Minister’s repeated promises on security sector reform Muhammad Shia Sudani and like their predecessors, groups within Hashd al-Shaabi that receive state funding and weapons continue to operate independently of Iraqi government control. For example, in Iraq, groups under the banner of Islamic Resistance are actively involved inside Syrian Civil War Although the Iraqi government has never officially approved the deployment of Iraqi troops to Syria.

Lately letter In a speech to world leaders on the anniversary of the October 7 attacks, Prime Minister Sudani called for international pressure on Israel to stop its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. He also said his government was “working hard to protect Iraq from the effects of this escalation,” perhaps as a subtle way of indicating that the militias’ actions were beyond its control. While Iraq is taking the necessary steps to ensure Humanitarian aid to displaced Palestinians and Lebanese engaged Many Iraqis, who have made laudable diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, recognize that their country has no real interest in becoming a battleground in the Iran-Israel conflict.

The mobilization of Iraqi militias as part of the Axis of Resistance stems not from Iraq’s national interests, but from Iran’s regional strategy. Tehran uses these groups as tools to project its power, protect its nuclear program, and pursue its expansionist ambitions while maintaining plausible deniability. Iran may claim that these militias operate autonomously, thus absolving itself of responsibility for their actions. However, although this strategy is advantageous for Tehran, it carries serious risks for Iraq. As these militias become more deeply involved in the regional conflict, they increase the likelihood that Iraq will become a target of Israeli retaliation.

Since 2003, and especially after the emergence of Hashd al-Shaabi in 2014, Iraq has been grappling with an internal paradox regarding its military structure and governance. The duality of some PMF groups has led to ongoing instability. If the Iraqi government fails to gain control over these militias, the country risks being embroiled in a conflict that could have devastating consequences for its internal security. As Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, Prime Minister Sudani should leverage state funding and arms supplies to set the agenda of these groups and ensure that they act in line with Iraq’s national interests, not Iran’s.

The reckless behavior of armed groups has sparked a debate over who has the authority to declare war in Iraq. Ali al-Assadi, a senior leader of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, a pro-Iran militia group, said in a recent interview with Iraqi media:alleged Since they see Iraq as a country under US occupation, they say that the authority to declare war or peace belongs to armed groups, not the state. This stance directly contradicts Prime Minister Sudani’s statements confirming that this power is in the hands of official state institutions only. As a matter of fact, paragraph 9 of Article 61 of the Iraqi Constitution orders A declaration of war must be initiated jointly by the president and prime minister and approved by two-thirds of the parliament.

The recent escalation of the militias raises the danger that Iraq will become a new front in the broader regional conflict. Although Israel has not yet launched any attack on Iraqi territory, Israel is expected to retaliate strongly against Houthi attacks. Yemen and Hezbollah Lebanon He suggests that Iraq may soon find itself a target. In case of Israeli attacks, it is likely to trigger significant instability in Iraq, which is still recovering from decades of internal and external conflicts. Such strikes may also occur create Opportunities for resurgent ISIS and other extremist groups to take advantage of the resulting chaos will plunge Iraq further into both internal and regional turmoil. The interconnected nature of the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, as revealed by the rise of ISIS and other Sunni and Shiite jihadist groups over the past few decades, underscores the potential for destabilization should Iraq become a theater for Israeli military operations.

Moreover, the actions of Iraqi militias could have far-reaching consequences beyond Iraq’s borders. Militia leaders repeatedly was threatened Israel to target Saudi and Emirati oil infrastructure strikes Iraqi or Iranian territory. This could have a profound impact on global energy markets and further destabilize the region, putting pressure on international actors to intervene in various ways. Given the militias’ history of attacking Gulf targets and their reckless behavior, these threats need to be taken seriously.

Unless decisive action is taken domestically, Iraq will once again face the risk of becoming the focal point of a regional vortex, which will have serious consequences for the country’s infrastructure and stability. Iraqis have suffered from decades of internal and external wars and should not be dragged into a new conflict.

Mohammed Salih He is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute based in Philadelphia and serves as an independent consultant. He has a Ph.D. He graduated from the University of Pennsylvania and has written extensively on Iraq and regional issues for international media outlets and think tanks for nearly two decades. Follow him on X: @MohammedASalih.

Picture: Tasnim News Agency.