Texas enters Week 12 of the 2024 college football season in the SEC with control of its own destiny. Can the team take care of business on the road against an Arkansas team that has already suffered a major upset this season?

The Longhorns turned in their best performance in weeks in last week’s blowout win over Florida, but Arkansas will present a tough test on the road against a former Big 12 rival with a potent offense that has had a week to prepare. Here’s our full betting preview for this new SEC matchup.

Radiate

money line

Total: 57.5 (Above -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas

Quinn Ewers: Ewers looked as healthy as the Longhorns have since his early-season oblique injury during BYE week, throwing for 333 yards and five touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes. However, it’s worth noting that the team was at home against an unbeatable Florida team that featured a third-string quarterback. Arkansas’ defense has had its ups and downs this season, can it come out of its own BYE week and keep the Longhorns’ defense in check?

Arkansas

Ja’Quinden Jackson: Jackson took a hit, but the expectation is that the Utah transfer can return to the field against a vulnerable Texas rushing defense. At times this season the Longhorns have struggled to slow down teams on the field, and that could be the way forward for the Hogs, similar to the game script the team received against Tennessee in the midseason upset.

Although Arkansas tries to shorten the game with its ground-based approach, I believe Texas will have a hard time slowing down their passing attack with the team’s weak secondary, which could lead to a higher-scoring affair.

The Hogs secondary ranks 114th in EPA/Passing this season, which could create a ton of gains for Ewers and the Longhorns’ passing attack.

However, I think the Texas defense is a bit overrated due to the easy schedule this season. The team hasn’t had a top-40 offense in EPA/Play this season, and the best player it faced was Georgia, who scored 30 points.

Arkansas is 15th in EPA/Play and will have a week to prepare for the Texas defense, which will be the healthiest the team has been since beating Tennessee.

I think this time we see dots on the board and I’m going to go there.

SELECTION: OVER 57.5

Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all your college football betting betstamp @rw33

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