It’s crazy to think the Miami Dolphins are back in the playoff race after beating the Los Angeles Rams to improve to 3-6.

But we shouldn’t be so quick to assume that losing teams will suddenly become stable and wins will increase. Many fell in love with the New York Jets after beating the Houston Texans in Week 9, but they laid their eggs on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.

The seven teams in the AFC with three wins or fewer are at the bottom of the standings for a variety of reasons and are nowhere near true contenders in the conference.

Maybe it’s too late for the Dolphins to make a playoff run, but they can take steps forward to build an offense that can beat winning teams.

Six of the seven spots in the AFC play-offs are already being talked about, but we’re just starting the second half of the 2024 season. Let’s examine the wide gap between good and bad teams for this week’s NFL Fact or Fiction.

Manzano’s view: The truth

The Dolphins’ 23-15 victory over the Rams was the type of game that football fans should quickly forget. It was a tough game, but I can’t understand how easily the Dolphins handled a mostly healthy Rams team without relying on the deep ball.

Miami lived and died the last two seasons on Tua Tagovailoa’s downfield shots on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This was a strength that coach Mike McDaniel relied heavily on while ignoring diversity in his offensive scheme. But the all-gas, no-brakes approach often backfired against better teams, especially when temperatures dropped in December and January.

On Monday, the Dolphins jumped out to a quick 10-0 lead and scored 23 points; Hill contributed just three catches for 16 yards and a not-so-explosive one-yard touchdown pass. Waddle recorded three catches for 57 yards and remained relatively quiet after catching a 36-yard catch on the opening drive.

The Dolphins can no longer afford to play “go deep, Hill and Waddle” because they don’t have the offensive line to sustain it. It would be reckless on Miami’s part to ask Tagovailoa to defend against a defensive front as good as the Rams have.

McDaniel didn’t need to see Rams rookie offensive lineman Jared Verse sack Tagovailoa in the second quarter to know it wouldn’t be wise to take deep throws to Hill and Waddle. Miami found ways to get others to contribute to Tagovailoa; this can benefit them both now and in the long term. The Dolphins (3-6) aren’t far behind the Denver Broncos (5-5), who currently hold the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC. They could pick up a few more wins over the next two weeks against the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots.

McDaniel showed off the team’s depth by throwing a late-round touchdown pass to Malik Washington to give the Dolphins an early 7-0 lead over the Rams. Miami also got a prolific 33-yard catch-and-run play from tight end Jonnu Smith for Hill’s touchdown catch to take a 17-6 lead with 5:32 left in the third quarter.

But improving the Dolphins’ offense is a work in progress. Hill needs to make at least a few downfield shots every game; Otherwise why would you have him on your roster? This requires good timing and a balanced attack; That may be possible with how well second-year running back De’Von Achane played last month. McDaniel turned his scheme into a run-heavy offense with Tagovailoa sidelined for four games. It didn’t result in a win, but perhaps Miami can now produce a physical running game that will carry over into next season.

Manzano’s view: The truth

The fan base of the current top-six AFC team may have rolled their eyes at the epic jinx I unleashed on the football universe. But if I’m wrong, we’ll see chaos at least in the playoffs.

Come on, it would be fun to see rookie quarterback Drake Maye lead the Patriots to the postseason. But yeah, that probably won’t happen due to the disparity between teams with winning records and many teams with three wins or less.

It’s pretty clear who the real rivals are in the AFC, and they’re the usual suspects like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens. I guess it’s a pleasant surprise that the Pittsburgh Steelers are improving from a one-and-done playoff team. to a potential Super Bowl contender. With Russell Wilson as the starter. It could fall to one of four teams, but you can count on the Texans to make the postseason since they play at the bottom of the AFC South. All five of these teams made it to the play-offs last season. There isn’t much parity in the AFC right now.

The Los Angeles Chargers, currently in sixth place, will be a new playoff team in the AFC, but they must go through a tough four-game stretch after beating bad teams to improve on their 6-3 record. Los Angeles’ next step is a Sunday Night Football Showdown against the 4-6 Cincinnati Bengals, who look to gain ground against the 5-5 Broncos, who currently hold the final wild card spot in the AFC.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bengals use their dynamic offense to get into the postseason. But it’s hard to see that for the Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, Dolphins and Patriots. So yes, in my opinion, the only playoff spots that could be eliminated would be the Bengals and Broncos.

Shout at me if some of the top six AFC teams heading into Week 11 have completely collapsed in the last two months. I’d love to see a few surprise runs, but I don’t see them right now.

Manzano’s view: Fiction

At this point, it would be shocking if New York Giants coach Brian Daboll didn’t announce that Daniel Jones would be benched Wednesday morning.

The Giants have run out of excuses for Jones, who had a disastrous performance in an overtime loss against the Carolina Panthers in Germany. Jones is no longer an inexperienced project who needs time to improve and reach his high draft status with the No. 6 pick in the 2019 draft. That excuse fell flat when the team signed him to a four-year, $160 million contract extension in 2023, as there were more ups than downs in a lone season.

This was followed by the team pointing out Jones’ bad injury luck. But he was available this season and didn’t come close to what he did in the 2022 season, when the Giants surprisingly made the playoffs in Daboll’s first season in New York. It’s gotten so bad since then that Daboll is no longer viewed as the offensive genius who helped Josh Allen put it all together in Buffalo.

Daboll may or may not be on the hot seat, but he at least needs to see what Drew Lock or a different quarterback can do by throwing to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson and giving Tyrone Tracy Jr. a productive rushing attack. Yes, Tracy had a costly fumble in overtime against the Panthers, but thanks to his 103 rushing yards, New York was able to send the game against Germany into overtime.

Tracy is no Saquon Barkley, of course, but he has the weapons to do more than Jones has done this season. Jones has a 2-8 record with 2,070 passing yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Excuses are exhausted and it’s time for a change in New York as they move towards a high draft pick.

Manzano’s view: Fiction

The surging Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) currently own the No. 2 seed in the NFC behind the 8-1 Detroit Lions. But that doesn’t make them the second-best team in the conference.

It’s hard to tell whether the Eagles are a very good team or an average team struggling against weak opponents. For example, the Jacksonville Jaguars nearly beat the Eagles at home in Week 9 until Trevor Lawrence threw a brutal interception into the end zone. And Philadelphia went on to beat the Cleveland Browns by four points in Week 6.

The Eagles have won five straight games, but all of them have been against teams with losing records. They deserve credit for crushing the Bengals by 20 points in Week 8, but Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the league and is therefore one of the most disappointing teams in the league.

You could argue that the Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, and even the Cardinals are better than the Eagles, but Philadelphia beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 1.

We’ll learn a lot about the Eagles in Thursday night’s NFC East battle with the Washington Commanders. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are under the spotlight as the new team on the block. The Eagles can earn respect by showing that not much has changed in the league.