With the apparent appointment of two of America’s most hawkish Republicans, President-elect Donald Trump appears to be setting the stage for a confrontational relationship with China.

Trump, who easily won a second nonconsecutive term in the White House last week, is starting to assemble his team before being sworn into office in January.

At the top of the foreign policy team’s agenda will be America’s complex relationship with China.

While Trump threatened China, a major US trading partner, with a 60 percent tariff, he called the country’s president, Xi Jinping, a “smart man” who “controls 1.4 billion people with an iron fist.”

So who was appointed to do what?

Trump plans to appoint Florida Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state. New York Times and CNN.

At the same time, the president-elect asked congressman Michael Waltz, a retired Army National Guard officer and war veteran also from Florida, to be his national security adviser. Associated Press.

The Secretary of State serves as America’s top diplomat.

Antony Blinken, Joe Biden’s secretary of state, visited China twice in less than a year, from 2023 to 2024, and has been to Israel more than a half-dozen times since Oct. 7.

A travel schedule similar to that of at least China will be challenging for Senator Rubio, given his approval by Beijing; but we will touch on this issue later.

The national security advisor is similarly effective.

For those benefiting from the West Wing reference, Kate Harper, Jed Bartlett’s deputy national security advisor, advises him on the Middle East early in season six.

“(The National Security Advisor) chairs the National Security Council, which is made up of executives and officials who advise the president on national security foreign policy,” says Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

“So he, along with the secretary of state and the secretary of defense, are probably the president’s three most influential advisors, but of those three, I think (the national security advisor) is probably the most influential.

“The president has his ear on all matters related to foreign policy (and) national security.”

Who is Marco Rubio?

Mr. Morris describes Senator Rubio as “one of, if not the most hawkish senators in the Senate on China.”

The senator’s website states that the first thing on his list of priorities is “winning the 21st century” and that “no issue is more important to America’s future than the outcome of the ongoing conflict with the Chinese Communist Party.”

Born in Miami to Cuban immigrants, Senator Rubio says he was drawn to public service because of the experience of his grandfather, who “saw his homeland destroyed by communism.”

The 53-year-old has a long history of advocacy on China-related issues, including human rights abuses and support for Taiwan.

In August 2020, Senator Rubio was sanctioned by the Chinese Communist Party for “bad behavior on Hong Kong-related issues” after the United States sanctioned the city’s then-chief executive Carrie Lam and 10 other Chinese and Hong Kong officials over a crackdown on political freedoms remained.

A month ago, Beijing banned the senator after the United States imposed sanctions on several Chinese leaders it said were responsible for human rights abuses against Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

At the time, banning Senator Rubio was largely symbolic, but now it could become a major problem for the relationship.

But in September, with Democrat Jeff Merkley of Oregon, he proposed the No Funding for Forced Labor Act, which aims to limit loans from American banks for projects that risk forced labor.

Senator Rubio specifically identified China’s treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang as the main target of the bill.

“The Chinese Communist Party continues its grotesque campaign of genocide against Uyghurs and other minorities,” the statement said.

“As the author of the first legislation on Uyghur human rights in the world, I am determined to ensure we do more to counter this practice of modern slavery.”

The senator is one of the most traditional China hawks in the Republican Party, according to Bethany Allen, head of China research and analysis at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

“The most remarkable thing about him is that he’s been a China hawk for a long time and has really made a huge effort to learn about China,” he says.

“We are now seeing politicians jumping into anti-China education to build their careers on this issue, but he has been interested in this issue throughout his career and also has a deep knowledge of the Chinese government and the Chinese system.

“Up to this point, he hasn’t really allowed the trending winds in U.S. politics or foreign policy to influence him that much on China.”

Ms. Allen said her appointment would signal a likely commitment to existing bipartisan support for tough policy on China.

“Under Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the United States is unlikely to seek some form of détente with China and abandon traditional U.S. commitments to Taiwan,” he says.

Who is Michael Waltz?

Congressman Waltz’s resume includes many distinguished defense and security roles.

He served in the military and reserves for 27 years, including tours in Afghanistan and the Middle East, was a former Green Beret and served in the Pentagon and the White House. defense secretaries Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates.

His wife, Julia Nesheiwat, also a veteran, served as homeland security adviser during Trump’s first term.

He has also been outspoken about China, calling Beijing’s treatment of the Uyghurs “genocide in every sense of the definition,” comparing the CCP to a wage-advancing organization that benefits poor countries through the Belt and Road Initiative, and He publicly stated that the United States was in a Cold War with China.

He is a member of the China Dynasty Task Force and has sponsored bills aimed at reducing America’s dependence on China’s critical minerals, an issue of increasing importance to both the Chinese and U.S. governments.

He also lists supporting Florida’s space industry among his accomplishments and advocates deterring China’s celestial ambitions.

“This appointment suggests (Trump) will be more hawkish or take a tougher stance on China,” Mr. Morris said.

“On paper at least, (Mr Waltz) will be very opinionated towards China, he will have a realpolitik approach towards China.

“If indeed Rubio is (also) secretary of state, I think that would be a pretty uniformly hawkish policy toward China.”

Will Trump follow their advice?

Nobody really knows.

Mr. Rubio ran against Trump in the 2016 Republican primaries, but recent events suggest any acrimony lurks behind them.

The senator had campaigned for the president-elect until last week’s election.

However, given Trump’s last term, it is unlikely that the appointments will be concrete under his watch.

Famous for firing people on his reality show, The Apprentice, he continued that trend in the office.

His first term was filled with impeachments and resignations, including the sudden dismissal of his first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, via social media in 2018.

“We also saw in Trump’s first term a tremendous amount of turnover at the top levels of the administration and a lot of factional bickering, especially in the first year or two, especially on China policy,” Ms. Allen said.

“With these appointments, which are very traditional, pretty standard Republican, we could see the administration setting itself up for some factional infighting.”

Even if Trump takes the advice of Mr. Waltz and Senator Rubio, everything could go out the window once he gets in the room with Xi Jinping.

“Trump is a personality-driven leader,” Mr. Morris says.

“He likes to build relationships with authoritarian leaders, and until he meets with Xi, we can imagine he can steer China.

“And then there is some sort of negotiation or some sort of agreement between Trump and Xi that could then change the course of U.S.-China policy.”

What does Beijing think?

Again, it is difficult to know what Mr. Xi really thinks about Trump’s election.

However, evidence suggests that these appointments will not be welcomed by the Chinese leadership.

“It’s very hard for me to imagine that Beijing feels good about these appointments,” Ms. Allen says.

“These are some of the most hawkish on China and the most consistent and prominent Republicans.

“Marco Rubio was sanctioned by China, so I can’t imagine Xi Jinping will perceive this as a continuation of very harsh US policies towards China.”

Asked about the reported appointments at the daily Foreign Affairs press conference in Beijing, ministry spokesman Lin Jian said the government had no comment on the selection of officials in America and that China’s policy towards the United States had not changed.

The spokesman said he had no information on whether Beijing would lift the sanctions and travel ban on Senator Rubio.