When Donald Trump is re-elected last week, exit polls It shows he is headed for victory with gains across a broad demographic group, buffered once again by strong support from Christian voters.

In fact, Trump made gains in nearly every category of self-identified Christians running against Kamala Harris compared to his 2020 race against Joe Biden. He has even expanded his support among “born again” whites and evangelical Christians, a group that overwhelmingly supported him in all three presidential campaigns.

Trump widened his margins for Christians who identify as “Protestant or other Christian” and Catholics, according to NBC exit poll data. 63 percent of voters who identified themselves as “Protestant or other Christian” voted for Trump, and 36 percent voted for Harris. It’s a small swelling 2020When Trump got 60% of the “Protestant or other Christian” vote and Biden got 39%.

Trump made a bigger splash with Catholic voters against Harris, who is Baptist. Exit polls show Catholic voters voting for Trump 58 percent to 40 percent for Harris. That’s a big change from 2020, when Biden, a Catholic, won Catholic voters 52% to 47%.

white Christians

The majority of white Christians supported Trump in 2024, just as they did in 2020. The proportion of white Christians who identify as “Protestant and other Christian” is 72% to 26%; In 2020, they supported Trump by 72% to 27%. White Catholics support Republicans by 61% to 35% in 2024. This is another significant shift from 2020, when Trump won white Catholic voters 56% to 44%.

Trump once again has his strongest support from those who identify as born-again white or evangelical Christians. In 2024, born-again whites and evangelical Christians made up 27% of the electorate and voted for Trump, while 82% to 17% voted for Harris. Born-again whites and evangelical Christians made up 28% of voters in 2020 and supported Trump over Biden by 76% to 24%.

The religious groups that had the majority and supported Democratic support were Jewish voters and those who identified as “something else.” Jewish voters supported Harris over Trump 78% to 22%, but made up only 2% of the electorate. Those who identified as “something else” made up 10 percent of voters and supported the vice president by a margin of 59 percent to 34 percent. That’s a drop from 2020, when those who said they were “something else” backed Biden 69% to 29%, although they had a smaller share of voters at just 4%. The NBC exit poll did not have enough data for Jewish voters in 2020 to compare with this year’s poll.

If there is one group that supports Harris as strongly as born-again whites/Evangelical Christians support Trump, it’s the “have-nots”; those who claim no religious identity. They solidly supported Biden in 2020, 65% to 31%, and backed Harris even more, 71% to 26%.

While Trump has seen an overall increase in Christian voters, the 2024 electorate appears to be less Christian overall than in 2020. According to exit polls, “Protestant and other Christian” voters fell from 43 percent of the electorate to 42 percent. 2020. The Catholic vote fell to 22% from 25% in 2020.

Although support for Trump from born-again whites/Evangelical Christians has increased, this bloc has fallen from 28% of voters’ votes to 27% in 2020. Negative Born-again white/Evangelical Christians voters increased to 78% of the vote, up from 71% in 2020.

Religious identification among white voters appears to have remained stable from 2020 to 2024. The share of white voters who identify as “Protestant or other Christian” is down 30%, compared to 31% in 2020. The white Catholic vote fell to 15% from 17% in 2020. The proportion of those who define themselves as “something else” increased from 4% in 2020 to 5% in 2024. The shift occurred among white voters who claimed no religious affiliation – 17% compared to 14% in 2020.

Meanwhile, there were significant increases in the vote shares of those who defined their religious affiliation as “something else” and “neither”. The share of voters identifying as “something else” increased from 4% in 2020 to 10% in 2024, while “none” increased by 10 points, from 14% in 2020 to 24% in 2024.

Impact of abortion views

Another interesting change between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections is the issue of abortion, which has long been a galvanizing issue for some Christian voters, especially evangelical and born-again Christian voters. According to NBC’s exit poll, the proportion of voters who said abortion should be legal in 2020 was 51 percent, while the proportion of voters who said it should be illegal was 42 percent. Of those who said this should be legal, 74 percent voted for Biden and 24 percent voted for Trump. Those who said abortion should be illegal voted for Trump with 76 percent and Biden with 23 percent.

The proportion of voters who said abortion should be legal preferred Harris, 68% to 29%.

Following the national repeal of abortion rights in 2024 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization In the Supreme Court decision, the rate of those who say abortion should be legal dropped to 65 percent, and the rate of those who said it should be illegal dropped to 31 percent. The proportion of voters who said abortion should be legal preferred Harris, 68% to 29%. Those who said this should be illegal supported Trump 91 percent to 8 percent for Harris.

More analysis to come

An exit poll only provides a brief snapshot of voters’ identities, demographics, affiliations, beliefs, and emotions after they vote. Much more in-depth analysis of who voters are, what they believe, and how they vote will be provided later by groups like the Pew Research Center and Gallup. For example, NBC’s exit poll did not separate Christian voters from other racial groups in the same way it did with white Christian voters. Later data may show more layers and nuances in the faith coalition that supports Democrats and the faith coalition that supports Republicans.

Although Biden made significant inroads for Democrats with Christian voters in 2020, there were signs even before he dropped out of the race and Harris became the nominee that his fragile faith coalition was cracking.

at the Pew Research Center in April 2024 questionnaireProtestant voters’ support for Biden remained steady, with 38% saying they would vote for the president. However, Catholics’ support for Biden dropped to 43 percent. Black Protestants who voted 91% for Biden in 2020 According to PewIn the April poll, the share of people who said they would vote for the president dropped to an alarming 77%.

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