TAMPA, Fla. – Hurricane Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Tuesday night. Florida The Keys remain under a tropical storm warning.

As of 7:30 p.m., it was a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph.

It was located 305 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba, at 19.4°N 79.9°W and was moving northwest at 15 mph.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Lower and Central Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas.

Hurricane Rafael is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night, pass near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

After moving into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm is expected to turn northwest and become a tropical storm as it encounters cooler water temperatures and increased wind shear.

Heavy rain is expected in parts of the Western Caribbean, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the western and southern parts of Cuba. There, 3-6 inches of rain are expected; Locally higher amounts of up to 10 inches are possible in the highlands of Jamaica and Cuba.

This can lead to areas experiencing flash flooding and landslides.

How will Hurricane Rafael affect the Bay Area?

FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says while Rafael is expected to remain in the western Bay Area, there will be “border effects” across the region, especially Thursday morning.

“We’re not going to get sustained tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds this way,” Osterberg said. “But we could get strong winds and a few bands of rain along the coast.”

By the end of the week, models show Rafael following one of two paths: either moving westward and meandering over the Gulf, or turning northward. Florida Panhandle, probably more like a tropical storm.

“Either way, we expect this storm to weaken once it enters the Gulf,” Osterberg said. he said.

Where will Hurricane Rafael arrive?

Hurricane Rafael is expected to move generally northwestward over the next few days, according to the NHC.

There are still some questions about what will happen after Rafael moves into the Gulf of Mexico, and those on the U.S. Gulf Coast need to continue monitoring its progress.

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