Nate Silver rose to fame in 2008 when he predicted the outcome of the presidential election. analyzed the data and successfully searched 49 out of 50 states; Obama won. He did it again in 2012 and correctly predicted all 50 states. As MSNBC TV’s Rachel Maddow said at the time: “Do you know who won the election tonight? Nate Silver”.

So who does? Nate Silver’s prediction will win Presidential Election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in 2024? The answer to the question is “Donald Trump”but do so with caution because he admits that this is his “gut” feeling. “But I don’t think you should underestimate anyone’s instincts — including mine.”

On calculating actual numbers rather than a gut feeling, From what he can see, it’s very tight. The “only responsible guess” was a 50-50 shot, he said in a New York Times article in late October.

“You have to accept the fact that a 50-50 forecast actually means 50-50,” the famous pollster said. “And you have to be open to the possibility that those predictions are wrong, and that could be equally true for Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”

Silver’s final call on the 2024 elections

on it Silver Bulletin substackSilver posted his latest update at half past midnight this morning, saying his model ran from 80,000 simulations: Kamala Harris won 40,012 times (50.015%) and Trump won 39,718 times (49.648%), with 270 simulations resulting in Electoral College ties. Where the tie is Trump is expected to win in the US House of Representatives.

J. Ann Selzer poll calls Harris into Iowa

In other poll news, the biggest story of the last few days was: Top pollster J. Ann Selzer says Harris is winning in Iowa by 47% to 44%. Iowa is considered Republican and is not one of the seven swing states that could go the other way.

Nate Silver said the news from Iowa “probably won’t matter” in deciding the presidency, but added, “I think it’s reasonable for Harris voters to be happy about the Selzer poll.” In his opinion That means there are plenty of “high-quality pollsters” calling it a victory for both Harris and Trump.