Updated on November 15, 2024 at 9:30 AM EST.

Florida’s west coast is still likely to feel the effects of Tropical Storm Sara, but an organized storm is no longer expected to impact the state. Around Wednesday of next week, residual tropical moisture with gusty winds looks likely to flow along Tampa’s north shore and move southward ahead of an approaching strong cold front.

The combination of a tropical disturbance ahead and a strong jet stream behind it can create bad weather depending on exactly how they come together. Tropical showers are expected before the big change in weather conditions with the front. The entire state will feel the cool weather by Thursday.

For now, Tropical Storm Sara is drifting westward just off the northern coast of Honduras. Directional currents are collapsing, so the storm will remain trapped off the coast of Honduras through the weekend.

Tropical Storm Sara is drifting westward just off the northern coast of Honduras.

(NOAA)

The sustained impact of tropical moisture on the highlands of northern Honduras is predicted to produce 25-30 inches of precipitation in some areas. Catastrophic flooding and landslides are possible. Life-threatening rains are expected across much of Central America.

The sustained impact of tropical moisture on the highlands of northern Honduras is predicted to produce 25-30 inches of precipitation in some areas.

(NOAA)

If Sara drifts over the mountainous terrain of northern Honduras, the storm will weaken even further. If it follows a path down the right side of the cone and thus remains farther from shore, conditions are conducive to significant strengthening. But the strong consensus in computer forecasts is that Sara’s center will track near or over the Honduran coastline, so the National Hurricane Center is not predicting dramatic strengthening. Rain is the primary danger.

Later in the weekend the steering pattern will begin to change and a path to the northwest will open. This will take Sara to Belize and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. Sara is expected to be relatively weak when it makes landfall in or near Belize City; that is, as a tropical storm with winds of 50 miles per hour. The expectation is that Sara’s circulation will not survive the trek across the Yucatan.

The official National Hurricane Center forecast will dissipate the system before reaching the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Some computer forecasts show Sara continuing toward the Florida Peninsula, but upper-level winds are predicted to be gusty, so the storm is not expected to develop again.

However, impacts in the form of tropical showers with strong winds are still possible. Sometimes tornadoes can form in this type of pattern. The tropical air belt will move rapidly south ahead of a strong cold front that will press down on the state next Wednesday.

For now, stay updated to make sure nothing weird happens, but plan for a week of normal weather next week with a brief stormy spell on Wednesday.