It was another week where I lost my best performance college football picks but thanks to a mid-season hot streak we are still in the black and aim to stay that way as teams battle for cup eligibility.

I’m trying to sort through some of the chaos in the Big 12 this week, and the longer I talk about it the more I think Tennessee is a live dog in its contest against Georgia.

Here are my Triple Option college football picks for Week 12.

College football best bets Week 12

Elections were held on 11-15. Click on each selection to read the full analysis.

College football Week 12 best bets

Best bet #1: Sawyer Robertson over 233.5 passes

Best odds: -115 at Bet365

Baylor Bears He became my mortal enemy when they dumped poor old Cam Rising on the Gatorade table in September, effectively ending his season and my hopes of a deep playoff run in Utah. But sometimes we have to forgive and forget, especially when we can make money.

The Bears lost the Utah game 23-12 and their offense looked terrible. Transfer quarterback DeQuann Finn was injured and didn’t seem to fit in Baylor’s system. So the Bears moved on Sawyer Robertson and haven’t looked back.

Since taking over the starting QB job, Robertson has thrown for 1,716 yards and 16 touchdowns compared to four interceptions in seven games. Baylor has won four of those games, including the last three, and they are one win away from qualifying for this weekend’s matchup. West Virginia Mountaineers.

West Virginia is also 5-4 and has reeled off back-to-back wins with its backup quarterback, but slowing down Robertson should be a bigger concern.

The Mountaineers have one of the worst pass defenses in the Power Four. West Virginia enters this Big 12 matchup ranked 119th in dropback success rate and 106th in EPA per dropback. Basically, teams can listen to them, dunk them, and beat the Mountaineers with explosive plays.

West Virginia has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for at least 265 yards in each of the last four weeks. Yes, Robertson’s pass prop is on the board at 233.5. A number he has eclipsed in five of his seven starts.

With a difference of just 1.5, this game is expected to be close and passing will be a big part of the game plan for Baylor as Robertson has averaged 35.4 pass attempts in his last five games. And if the Bears fall behind, that will mean more distance for us.

Best bet #2: Arizona State +9

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

It’s chaos in the Big 12, and it could get even crazier after this weekend. One of the most important matchups of the conference takes place in Manhattan; Here the score is 7-2. Kansas State Wildcats Will host 7-2 Arizona State Sun Devils what turned into a conference title playoff game.

Both the Wildcats and Sun Devils enter this matchup with two conference losses. The third would be the final nail in the coffin of any Big 12 title hopes.

Kansas State was supposed to be here and enter the season as one of the favorites to win the Big 12. He was always going to have a good defense and he does, ranking fourth in defensive success rate.

The success of this Wildcats season was always dependent on the development of quarterback Avery Johnson. While Johnson is a dynamic playmaker, it mostly comes down to his legs, and his inconsistency as a passer has hurt K-State at times.

Meanwhile, Arizona State is the team that shouldn’t be here. The Sun Devils totaled 4.5 wins in the regular season and reached the Over more than a month ago.

Running back Cam Skattebo is the heart of this team and the engine of the offense; He’s rushing for 1,001 yards, 5.6 yards per carry and has 11 touchdowns despite missing last week’s game against UCF.

Arizona State survived because it got solid quarterback play from Sam Leavitt, who threw for 1,631 yards with 14 touchdowns and four picks. Overall, the Sun Devils rank 16th in offensive success rate.

Skattebo is expected to return in this important matchup, and the Sun Devils’ weak spot is pass defense. I’m not sure Johnson and the Wildcats are equipped to take advantage of that. Manhattan is always a tough place to play, but giving nine points to Arizona State doesn’t do enough respect for what the Sun Devils have done so far.

Best bet #3: Tennessee +10

Best odds: -110 at Bet365

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In this week’s episode (please go listen/like/subscribe), we talked about the game in Athens, which was obviously the biggest game of the week. Georgia Bulldogs will host Tennessee Volunteers in a game with major SEC championship game and College Football Playoff implications.

In this episode, I came in loaded and locked with the SEC’s best for the first half of the week. Still, the longer I talked about it, the further I couldn’t get away from the idea that Tennessee could do the same thing that Mississippi did to Georgia last week. Either way, 10 points is too much to give up to the Vols.

The Rebels handed the Bulldogs their second loss of the season; They suffered a 28-10 defeat in a match that was much wider than the final score indicated.

Simply put, the Dawgs’ offense looks broken and starts with Carson Beck. The Georgia quarterback hasn’t looked comfortable since the start of SEC play, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and throwing more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10) in seven SEC contests.

On top of that, the Dawgs couldn’t take enough advantage of their running game, which ranked 43rd in success rate, and now starting running back Trevor Etienne is out due to injury.

Mississippi really did a number on Georgia last week, limiting the Bulldogs to 59 rushing yards and 186 passing yards on 33 carries. Like I said, Tennessee can do all of this, too.

Led by arguably the best linebacker in the country, James Pearce Jr., the Vols have the top-ranked defense in the country for success rate, rank third in opponent yards per play and fifth in scoring defense at just 12.6 ppg. per game.

Tennessee also has a more balanced offense. The Vols will rely heavily on running back Dylan Sampson and trust Nico to not make mistakes. He proved he was up to the task against Alabama, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another strong performance from him this weekend.

Not only do I think Tennessee scores too many points, I also think the Vols are a live dog and can come away from Athens with a win.

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College football odds for week 12

Here it is college football odds for this week.

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