For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 11 NFL picks. Note: Team logos show who I think will win the game, they do not cover the spread. At the end of the selections, I will note a few teams I like according to the distribution.

Commanders on Eagles (-3.5): The Eagles have faced some mobile quarterbacks this season like Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones and Joe Burrow, but none of those guys have anything close to the dynamic athleticism that rookie phenom Jayden Daniels has. Commanders can put points on the scoreboard, and Daniels will pose a unique challenge for the Eagles’ defense with both his arm and his legs.

But the Commanders are an unbalanced team. They rank 25th in defensive DVOA (20th passing, 24th running) and have obvious issues at cornerback; They rightfully acknowledged this by acquiring Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. Lattimore (hamstring) doesn’t look quite ready to make his Commanders’ debut as he was unable to practice on Tuesday. We will see.

The Eagles, meanwhile, have become a more complete team, especially lately. They are allowing just 200.8 yards and 13 points per game during their five-game winning streak. Offensively, they average 380.6 yards per game and 29.4 points per game.

Both teams can score. They proved it. However, I believe the Eagles’ defense will get more stops.

Packers at Bears (-5): The Bears started off 4-2 but have now lost three straight games, including an embarrassing 19-3 loss to the Patriots last Sunday. They then fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Now they have to say goodbye to a well-rested Packers team they haven’t beaten since 2018.

Jaguars at Lions (-14): Trevor Lawrence left the game, thus creating a 14 point difference. The Jags’ backup is Mac Jones, who was 14 of 22 for 111 yards (5.0 YPA), 0 TDs, and 2 INTs against the Vikings last week. The Lions may be the best team in the NFL right now, but a 14-point lead seems a bit high, right? Six of the Jags’ eight losses were by a single point. I’m considering taking the points, but I’ll stay away.

Vikings at Titans (-6): The Titans have given up at least 7 points in six of their seven losses, but it’s hard to trust the Vikings to put points on the board lately given that Sam Darnold hasn’t played nearly as well as he did in the first month. of the season.

Ravens at Steelers (-3): The Steelers have continued this rivalry recently, winning seven of their last eight games. The Ravens have not scored 20 or more points in a game against the Steelers since 2020. The Steelers haven’t always had great teams this term, but they always seem to have a good plan for Lamar Jackson.

Raiders at Dolphins (-7): As bad as the Dolphins have been this season, they are only in 1.5 games of the 7 seeds and they look very active in back-to-back games. They lost by three to the Bills Week 9 and had a convincing road win against a good Rams team. Three of the next four games will be at home against the Raiders, Patriots and Jets. They have a chance to make a run.

Colts in Jets (-4): For some reason Vegas still sees Jets as one of the best half of league teamsand point spreads reflect this. I don’t like cycling with Anthony Richardson, who will start once again for the Colts, but I know the Jets are fake and I’ll take my chances with four points.

On a side note, it’s funny how the clip below shows how easily Aaron Rodgers spreads and how unlikely it is to be true:

Idiot.

Rams at Patriots (-4.5): I only had the chance to watch one joint Eagles-Patriots practice this summer so I don’t want to sound super knowledgeable about the Patriots’ training camp in such a small sample size, but it seemed pretty clear to me that Drake Maye has always been this way. He’s much better than Jacoby Brissett and I like what he’s shown so far. A 4.5-point spread looks palatable on the surface for the Rams, and I’m definitely picking them to win, but I’d also be wary of this matchup with a West Coast team traveling across the country looking for a No. 1 seed. Start in the afternoon.

Browns at Saints (-1): Who cares?

Seahawks at 49ers (-6.5): Last six matches in this series:

1. 49ers by 12
2. 49ers through 18
3. 49ers by 12
4. 49ers through 18
5. 49ers by 8
6. 49ers by 20

So of course I’ll give the Niners 6.5 points as they start to play better.

Falcons at Broncos (-2.5): Maybe it’s a bit reductive, but I like the Broncos’ defense better than any other unit for either team in this matchup.

Chiefs at Bills (-2.5): This is by far the match of the week. Is it so bad there isn’t a game to be played in prime time instead of Bengals-Chargers?

In my opinion, the Bills are the better team and they proved they can beat the Chiefs in the regular season. But we all know what will happen in the playoffs.

Bengals at Chargers (-1.5): The Chargers have quietly won their last three games by double digits, but Joe Burrow has been on a bit of a roll lately, throwing 9 TD passes in his last two games.

Texans (-7.5) at Cowboys: I don’t really like the Texans or how C.J. Stroud is playing right now, but I’d welcome 7.5 points on the road against a Cowboys team that is sure to get beat the rest of the season.