NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released its official winter outlook for 2024-25 on Thursday, and it looks like a weak La Nina will emerge and impact weather patterns this winter. FOX Weather Meteorologist Bob Van Dillen breaks down the latest developments in the report.

Climate experts are eagerly awaiting the declaration of La Niña, but the global weather pattern may be weak or not occur at all, potentially affecting global weather patterns.

The world is stuck in a neutral status El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Sea surface anomalies in the region between -0.5°C and 0.5°C over the Pacific have waxed and waned since the beginning of summer.

In recent months, cooler-than-average waters have been detected by satellites over the central and eastern tropical Pacific, but have not yet reached the threshold that would declare the onset of a La Niña event.

ENSO Forecast Models

(Columbia Climate School, Columbia University / FOX Weather)

These conditions created variable weather conditions around the world; According to long-term climate models, this situation may continue through most of 2025.

By early 2024, most models were showing the world would enter a La Niña, and that was a big deal. But, fewer and fewer model runs now predict this scenario.

A significant minority of model runs now hold the world in neutral for the foreseeable future, factoring in extreme weather over the coming winter, spring and beyond.

Periods when trade winds in the tropics were weaker than normal allowed the Pacific to warm slightly, delaying the development of global warming. La Niña activity.

Model comparison showing the evolution of the ENSO forecast from June to October.

(Columbia Climate School, Columbia University)

WHAT ARE THE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA CLIMATE PATTERNS?

What are the effects of a neutral winter in the US?

The combination of warming areas in the Pacific and results from computer models gives forecasters confidence that a significant La Niña is unlikely in the coming months.

A neutral winter means that neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are in control, often resulting in more regional jet stream patterns. This is leading to reduced extreme cold outbreaks in the northern United States and average precipitation levels in the southern part of the country.

A La Niña winter It typically results in much colder and snowier conditions across the country, but that still doesn’t appear to be in the cards for the 2024-25 season, which begins Dec. 1.

2023-24 El Nino brought one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record globally WEtemperatures are 5°F above normal.

While the upcoming winter is expected to be a little cooler, no widespread records are expected to be broken in cold weather.

The combination of the ENSO situation and general climate warming is expected to keep temperatures above average across much of the country.

The last time the country experienced a below-average winter was in 2013-14, when the average temperature was almost one degree below typical values.

According to the NOAA database, the coldest winter on record was 1978-79; The winters of 1935-36, 1898-1899, 1909-10 and 1904-05 completed the five coldest winters.

This map analyzes the magnitude of warming during the winter months (December-February) using 52 years of temperature data (1970-2021).

(Map: Climate Central; Data: NOAA/NCEI / NOAA)

LITTLE-KNOWN WEATHER PATTERN WHEN EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA ARE NO LONGER UNDER CONTROL

Could El Niño return?

Some forecast models show that: El Niño It may return in 2025, but again climate patterns do not seem to be in a rush to enter one extreme or another.

Since reliable observations of ENSO began in the 1950s, there have been only a few occasions when a double El Niño occurred.

Ocean water temperature anomalies

(NOAA)

The period from 1991 to 1995 was marked by a double El Niño, with a long series of neutral conditions extending from 1992 to 1994.

An important unknown is its impact. climate Change in ENSO’s behavior.

Rising ocean temperatures are likely to increase the frequency of El Niño events, but more research is needed to understand how warmer seas will affect changes in the world’s ENSO status.

NOAA provides monthly updates on ENSO’s status, published on the second Thursday of each month.