Waltz, a special forces veteran, has been a leading critic of China in the US Congress, stating that the two countries are in a “cold war” and that China is an “existential threat”. He supported strengthening US ties in the Indo-Pacific to counter Chinese influence and supported the arming of Taiwan.

“We must learn from Ukraine by addressing the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) threat and arming Taiwan NOW before it is too late,” Waltz tweeted in May 2023.

Rubio, Trump’s former rival for the presidential nomination and a staunch supporter of Taiwan, is set to become the first top diplomat technically banned from entering China by the United States. He was sanctioned by Beijing in 2020 for his criticism of human rights violations in Xinjiang and the Chinese government’s crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong.

These two names were probably not what Xi had in mind when he called on the two superpowers to “find the right way to get along with each other” in his congratulatory message to Trump last week. But he wouldn’t be surprised either.

Dr. from Beijing Tsinghua University. Sun Chenghao says that in China, Trump is expected to shift the ledger from the Biden administration’s “managing competition” approach to a “winning competition” approach.

Loading

“Trump himself does not care about the Taiwan Strait issue and prefers to adopt a ‘transactional’ stance,” Sun said. China Times He added this week that staffers on the Trump team will likely push the administration to expand arms sales to Taiwan, increase the level of official U.S.-Taiwan contacts and encourage Taiwan’s participation in international organizations.

“These measures will not only lead to a high degree of instability in the Taiwan Strait, but may also become a risk point in Sino-US relations.”

As for Taiwan, it has already begun signaling to Trump’s new team that it is ready to increase defense spending along with Britain. Finance Times reported this week that Taipei was considering purchasing a large package of US weapons. The purchase will serve as an overture to Trump, who has repeatedly complained about his allies not paying them.

“Taiwan knows that Uncle Sam helps those who help themselves, which is why Taiwan has been increasing its defense budget significantly in recent years,” says Weng-ti Sung, a Taipei-based non-researcher at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Center.

Loading

But rapid budget increases will never be easy, especially as Mr. Trump calls on Taiwan to increase its defense budget by up to 10 percent, without specifying a timeframe or path.”

But as many US experts emphasize, an asterisk hangs on all aspects of foreign policy under the president-elect; It’s a broad warning about what Dean calls “the volatile nature and whims of the president.”

As Trump pursues a new trade war focused on imposing 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports, Dean says the key question will be: “How far does the Trump White House go in competing with China and their major allies and partners — especially how far?” Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines – are you willing to go with them?” All four countries have greater trade exposure to China than the United States, with Australia being the most dependent.

Last month, Trump even rejected the idea that he would be faced with the option of using military force in response to China’s blockade of Taiwan. He suggested that Xi respected him and would anyway use the threat of further debilitating tariffs on China as deterrence.

“I had a very strong relationship with him,” Trump said. “I won’t have to (use military force) because he respects me and knows I’m crazy,” he said. Wall StreetJournal.

One of the takeaways from the last Trump administration was the “last briefing” phenomenon; that is, the last person to reach the president’s ear often had a profound influence on his thinking.

This puts Waltz and Rubio in powerful positions to shape global security. Whether Trump will listen to them is another question entirely.