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Trump’s unpredictable leadership could cost South Korea: Official
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Trump’s unpredictable leadership could cost South Korea: Official

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s risky, unpredictable leadership could impose new “costs” on South Korea, giving allies a rare opportunity to turn decisions into action quickly and with greater momentum, a senior Seoul official said on Nov. 12. He said he might give it a chance.

Responding to The Korea Herald’s question about risks and opportunities, a senior State Department official said at a closed-door press briefing, “One of the risk factors lies in the increasing uncertainty associated with President-elect Trump’s leadership style, which increases unpredictability.” . It’s from Trump’s second term.

“His basic strategy is to increase US bargaining power by increasing pressure through uncertainty, regardless of whether the other party is an ally, friendly country or enemy state. “This approach may cause costs rather than being a risk factor for us,” he said.

However, the official noted that opportunities still exist for US allies in Trump’s second term.

“The opportunity lies in areas where Korea and the United States are completely compatible, without any political nuance or divergent views. “In such cases, quicker action can be taken,” he said.

“There is a possibility that the usual complex issues will be simplified compared to past (US) administrations. If their (allies’) interests align, this could allow us to take faster and more decisive action. “I have a passing feeling that that might be the case.”

At the same briefing, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul emphasized that Trump’s policy toward an expanded role and security contributions from allied nations is consistent with South Korea’s vision of a “globally important state” committed to fulfilling responsibilities that match its national strength. situation.

Cho added that the Trump administration’s first term and the Yoon administration demonstrated strong alignment on the Indo-Pacific strategy.

“The State Department plans to further strengthen cooperation with a second Trump administration through detailed policy coordination based on these policy alignments,” Cho said.

In response to The Korea Herald’s question about the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ priorities regarding the alliance in talks with the incoming Trump administration, the unnamed official said that the ministry will focus on areas where it is expected to differ from Biden’s approach in Trump’s second term.

“We will identify areas where the Trump administration differs from the Biden administration regarding the Korea-US alliance. The focus will then likely shift to coordinating policies in these areas, which seems the most logical course of action,” the official said, without giving specific examples.

Regarding a possible request from Trump to renegotiate the defense cost-sharing agreement from 2026 to 2030, which was officially signed on November 4, the unnamed official said that in order to support South Korea’s determination, “this agreement must be approved by the National Assembly and He emphasized the importance of putting it into effect. position and “ensuring legal stability”.

While the 12th Special Measures Agreement signed requires the approval of the National Assembly in South Korea, it is considered an administrative agreement in the USA that gives Trump the authority to cancel or renegotiate the agreement.

The unnamed senior official also acknowledged this possibility. Trump is preparing for a new summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. However, he emphasized that nothing is certain and many things are variable.

“President-elect Trump’s typical negotiating strategy usually begins with a hardline stance aimed at disrupting the status quo and is followed by moves to advance national interests. “With this approach, I personally believe that there is a high probability that it will follow the same path if it continues its dialogue with North Korea,” he said.

“But the most important thing is that any dialogue with North Korea should be carried out on the initiative of South Korea and reflect our position, which is the most critical prerequisite.”

Regarding South Korea’s Russia policy, the official responded positively to The Korea Herald’s question about whether the end of the Ukraine war could be a key factor in adjusting Korea’s attitude towards Russia.

“Is it possible to restore relations with Russia when the war in Ukraine ends? Since only a ceasefire has been achieved, it will be difficult for relations to return to normal immediately. Many variables will depend on the conditions under which the ceasefire took place and the post-war settlement process, the official said.

He said of South Korea: “But I can safely say that the scope of our diplomatic engagement with Russia will be much broader after the war than it was during the war.”

However, the official explained that it remains difficult to achieve meaningful progress in the dialogue between Seoul and Moscow, given the current situation with Russia continuing to occupy Ukraine and North Korea supporting Russia in an illegal war.

“Diplomacy with Russia continues,” the official said. “But it is extremely unrealistic to expect any improvement in relations under these circumstances.”