Donald Trump will return to the White House having determined his foreign policy approach for the next four years.

US voters elected a leader who adheres to certain rules “America First” The principle that US interests come first and are expected to come first isolationist more than current president Joe Biden.

Trump’s second presidency may be welcomed by some foreign leaders, including the Hungarian prime minister. Viktor Orban and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, the same cannot be said for Chinese President Xi Jinping. For the experienced Chinese worsening Considering relations with the United States since Trump’s first presidency, the return of the Trump administration to the White House would not be good news for Beijing.

China’s economic difficulties

Trump made an unprecedented move trade war In July 2018, it went against the world’s second largest economy and imposed rising tariffs into 2018. 25% Regarding Chinese imports to the United States.

However, in his 2024 election campaign speeches, Trump suggested that US tariffs on Chinese goods could increase until 2024. 60% or More.

China’s economy is in crisis and falling property prices, high local government debt And high youth unemployment. More tariffs could disrupt China’s economic recovery strategy. export.

Unfortunately for Beijing, higher tariffs may not be the only thing Beijing has to worry about under Trump’s second presidency. USA under Trump’s leadership is likely restrict The amount of technology flowing to China from the US or Europe will disrupt China’s ambitions to become the largest country in the world. global artificial intelligence leader In 2030.

The new US administration may also pursue an economic policy. separation China’s strategy to “de-risk” itself from exposure. This will aim to reduce US dependence on China by moving the supply chain elsewhereand could restrict U.S. investment in China.

While Trump’s previous high tariffs (a continuation of Joe Biden’s) have undoubtedly soured ties between Washington and Beijing, this is another contributing factor. weakened China-US relations are like the Russia-Ukraine war. West blames Beijing support Moscow and Russia during the Russia-Ukraine war was threatened Taking action against China for its aid to Russia.

Fortunately for Russia, Trump’s second presidency could turn the tables in Moscow’s favor. The peace deal Trump negotiated between Russia and Ukraine could include: to transfer Territories of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia. Trump could even lift or reduce sanctions on Russia, as the newly elected president has done “No to sanctions”.

Beijing hopes a powerful ally in Russia will help Opposing the US-led world order and to avoid becoming the West’s focal point should Russia somehow fail to conquer Ukraine. But this way “chief dealmaker” and what does Trump, as a leading proponent of the “America first” agenda, have to gain from aiding Russia?

Russia was first extremely dependent Helping Russia resolve its diplomatic and economic issues with China could weaken Beijing’s influence in Russia. Secondly, as a Russia-backed Iran It undermines US interests In the Middle East, a new Trump administration could broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that would see Russia suspend that agreement military support From Iran and Iran’s regional allies Hezbollah.

As Iran’s influence in the region wanes, Washington can, if it wishes, free up more Middle East-bound resources and refocus its energy elsewhere, such as China. This could further weaken China’s economic recovery.

So what’s next for Taiwan?

Different BidenTrump happened uncertain on whether he would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. However, there are fears that Trump may make a deal with China and use Taiwan as a port. bargain chip or maybe to abandon island completely.

Trump, Taiwan “stolen” is moving the semiconductor industry away from the United States and should pay more for his defense. But his grievance against Taiwan is not the biggest problem.

Trump stated that he could increase tariffs If Beijing invades Taiwan, Chinese goods will be taxed at rates of up to 200 percent. China’s economic problems and President Xi’s prove His value as a leader with prestige and power comparable According to Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China, Xi may see this as a valuable trade.

How might China react?

As China prepares for the uncertainties that a Trump second presidency will bring, Beijing is likely to establish alliances outside the western world. It could be increasingly busy with Association of Southeast Asian Nations) And Gulf Cooperation CouncilChina is reducing its dependence on the West in terms of exports and investment.

If Russia’s support for the Middle East regime decreases, China may also contact Iran. Ultimately, more U.S. resources in the Middle East could mean fewer resources to deal with the problem. “China threat”.

One factor that may cause Trump to worry about Taiwan falling under Beijing’s control, even if he wants the United States to produce more, is the island’s manufacturing. 60% of all semiconductors. This product It is very important to use electronic And Worldwide artificial intelligence.

It remains unclear what role Elon Musk will play in Trump’s second presidency. Trump stated that Musk would become president government efficiency commission if he wins the second term. But since Tesla electric cars are quite high dependant in the Chinese market and Tesla’s factory in shanghai It is not yet known what role Musk will play in bridging the Washington-Beijing divide.