BIG PINE KEY, Fla. (AP) — The world’s only Key deer, the smallest subspecies of white-tailed deer, is found in pine and swamp wetlands in the Florida Keys bordered by the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. For years, the biggest threat came from speeding vehicles on U.S. Highway 1 or local roadways.

But the waters surrounding the islands now pose the biggest long-term risk to this herd of about 800 moose as rising seas endanger their only habitat.

These charismatic little deer have been listed as endangered for almost 60 years after their numbers dropped to around 50 due to hunting and poaching long ago. Still, they made a tremendous comeback, with a peak population of nearly 1,000 in the mid-2010s, before a deadly parasite and Hurricane Irma took a heavy toll.

But experts and wildlife advocates say today this conservation success story is in danger of being undone by climate change. Sea level rise is already changing the landscape of Big Pine Key and at least 20 smaller islands that elk call home.

Most of the elk live on Big Pine Key, a swampy island 30 miles (48 kilometers) from Key West. They wander through neighborhoods of about 4,500 people, strolling through lush gardens and drinking from buckets prepared for them by local residents as natural freshwater resources dwindle.

Key deer are much smaller than their North American counterparts; The largest deer stand less than 10 feet (1 meter) tall at the shoulder and weigh about 75 pounds (34 kilograms).

“They were always vulnerable,” said Chris Bergh, the Nature Conservancy’s South Florida program manager who oversees sea level rise projects and lives on Big Pine Key. “They are much more vulnerable now. “This situation increases even more with the rise in sea levels and the shrinking of living spaces.”

Highway deer deaths

In Big Pine Key, mom and pop bars, restaurants, gas stations and small motels line both sides of busy US 1. The main industry revolves around water; rental boats, fishing, diving, holiday rentals.

In order to protect deer from being hit by vehicles, drivers are warned that they have entered the deer’s habitat. A 2-mile (3.2-kilometer) stretch of US 1 has been elevated and fenced, allowing deer to pass under the road. Speed ​​limits are also strictly enforced, often frustrating tourists traveling to Key West.

Deer are still being shot at an alarming rate. “As a result, approximately 90 to 120 deer are known to be killed by vehicles each year,” said Jan Svejkovsky, chief scientist for Save Our Key Deer.

Wildlife officials have worked hard to get the message across: Don’t feed Key deer. They fear deer will approach cars and go near roads to get help.

Despite traffic deaths, the population remained stable. But a bigger threat looms on the horizon.

Effects of climate change on deer

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, by 2100, seas will rise from 1.5 feet to 7 feet (0.5 to 2 meters) in parts of the Florida Keys. The threat is greatest on low-lying islands like Big Pine Key, where the highest point is only 8 feet above sea level.

Experts say sea rise will continue to shrink freshwater and food supplies.

“As the sea rises, the amount of fresh water available, available, tasty vegetation and places to carry their young decreases,” said the Nature Conservancy’s Bergh. “This brings them into increasing conflict with people occupying higher ground.”

In addition to rising seas, climate change brings the threat of stronger hurricanes along with storm surges that can damage deer habitat and freshwater supplies.

Saltwater seepage is also responsible for killing much of Florida’s slash pines, which give Big Pine Key its name. Mangroves are growing out of place in an ever-changing environment, further choking out deer habitat.

Shrinking habitat drives deer into neighborhoods

Significant deer on Big Pine Key are wandering through neighborhoods and munching on yards. Some people even have names of those who frequent their gardens.

“They’re very gentle, very gentle,” said Connie Ritchie, who sometimes sees about 30 deer a day. “And the longer you live here, the more you want to protect them. Big time. Protect them because they are so innocent.”

“There are some plants they really like,” Ritchie said, noting that the federal elk refuge here hosts events where it hands out native plants. “So they’re trying to teach us to plant plants that deer won’t eat.”

Development of Big Pine Key began in the 1970s and 1980s when “entire pieces of land on islands still inhabited by elk were converted into planned subdivisions, complete with saltwater canal networks to provide direct water access to land buyers,” Save Our’s Svejkovsky said. Key Deer.

Development has destroyed some of the deer habitat, although the key remains mostly rural, with modest Florida bungalows and grander locales.

“A lot of our people and wildlife live in the same really dense area,” said Katy Hosokawa, a park ranger at the National Key Elk Refuge, established in 1957 on 8,542 acres (3,457 hectares) of Big Pine Key. “So the more houses we build or the less land we preserve, the less safe space they have.”

Deer adapt to humans and move freely between wilderness areas and neighborhoods. “They wander around, spend their days grazing,” Hosokawa said. “We don’t have really nutrient-dense soil, so they have to eat a lot to get what they need. But believe me, they’re very good at it. If it’s soft and tender, they’ll try to eat it.”

future of deer

The future, although uncertain, looks bleak.

Just 15 centimeters of sea rise expected by 2030 would mean the loss of 16% of freshwater sinkholes on Big Pine Key, said Nova Silvy, a professor emeritus at Texas A&M University who has studied Key elk since 1968. has been here for several years.

By 2050, sea rise is expected to exceed about 84% of the remaining 1,988 acres (805 hectares) of preferred habitat on Big Pine Key, and “the elk will be long gone,” Silvy said.

What happens if elk can’t live in the Keys?

Bergh said he would rather buy more time to ensure the elk’s survival here. “And at some point, if that’s no longer possible, I personally think zoos are the most responsible alternative,” he said. “But this is a very bad alternative. Who would want that for a wild animal?”

In rare cases, scientists have been allowed to: relocating endangered species threatened by climate change as a last resort. But Silvy said: “The problem is if you move them to another place where there are deer, they will hybridize and then you lose the Key deer.”

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Frisaro reported from Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

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