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    • NHC monitoring Hurricane Rafael, disturbance. See Florida’s effects
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    NHC monitoring Hurricane Rafael, disturbance. See Florida’s effects

    Harry Posted on

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    Two systems in the Atlantic basin – Hurricane Rafael and a disturbance northeast of the Leeward Islands is flooding parts of the Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center. Rafael’s projected path has taken a wild turn westward, and his ultimate destination remains in flux.

    After wetting western Cuba and disabling the entire island’s electrical gridRafael entered the Gulf of Mexico still as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds of 105 mph. The storm is expected to weaken over the next few days, and a mid-level ridge is expected to push Rafael west and farther from the Sunshine State.

    Although landfall is not expected in Florida, storm surge and coastal flooding are possible in the lower Florida Keys. Areas along Florida’s west coast are under small craft and high surf advisories, with a high risk of dangerous rip currents.

    ➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

    ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

    Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, meteorologists are monitoring a trough of low pressure northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center said some gradual improvements are possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend.

    AccuWeather meteorologists say the system could improve tropical depression or storm as we move through the northern islands of the Caribbean this week.

    The next named storm of the season will be Sara.

    Here is the NHC’s latest update as of 7 a.m. Thursday, November 7:

    Hurricane Rafael: What you need to know

    Special note about NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path to the center of the storm. It does not show the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

    Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include a range of estimators and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help it make its forecasts.

    ➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

    Effects of Hurricane Rafael, Florida

    Here are the possible impacts for Florida from the National Hurricane Center:

    • Coastal flooding, including saltwater flooding, early this morning in oceanfront portions of the Lower Keys due to high tide, especially in the early morning hours. Water levels may reach 2 feet above mean high water mark, or about 1 foot higher than recent high tides. Conditions are expected to improve later this morning. Storm surge of 1 to 2 feet could occur in the lower Florida Keys.
    • Waves caused by Rafael are expected to spread east to west across much of the Gulf of Mexico later this week through early weekend. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and disrupt existing conditions.

    National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?

    Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    Near Leeward Island: A low pressure trough just northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. It is possible for this system to develop gradually over several days as it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.

    Regardless of the development, locally heavy rains are expected over the next few days in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and southeastern Bahamas.

    • Chance of formation over 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
    • Chance of formation over seven days: low, 30 percent.

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said the hatched areas on the tropical outlook map show “areas where a tropical cyclone, which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane, could develop.”

    The colors make it clear how likely a system with low yellow, medium orange, and high red could develop.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical advisories until a named storm has formed, but there is one exception.

    “If a system is close to land and has the potential to develop, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing advisories, even if the system has not developed into a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

    Who is likely to be affected?

    some areas Florida may feel some impacts, including tropical storm force winds and 1-3 inches of rain from Hurricane Rafael.

    ➤ Extreme rainfall forecast

    ➤ Florida hurricane forecast: With Rafael rumblings, storm-hit state should see only rain

    AccuWeather meteorologists say the system is in the southwestern Atlantic could become a tropical depression or storm as we move through the northern islands of the Caribbean this week. It’s too early to tell whether Florida will see any impact.

    Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and always be prepared.

    Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

    When does hurricane season end?

    Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

    Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms passing near your city

    Extreme rainfall forecast

    Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to make sure you’re always connected to the news. And call for us special subscription offers here.

    Credit: Christopher Cann and Jorge L. Ortiz, USA TODAY

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