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Leadership fight, lame duck, government split after GOP House win

Harry November 7, 2024

House Republicans flipped four House seats to regain the majority in the lower chamber, breaking Democrats’ trifecta on state power and paving the way for two years of divided government in Michigan.

Democrats hold a 56-54 majority in the House of Representatives. Tuesday’s victory for House Republicans means they will enter 2025 with a 58-52 majority in the state House.

GOP State House victory grows significantly Former President Donald Trump’s historic victory That top-of-the-list claim set off leadership races in both caucuses and is expected to trigger an active lame-duck session before House Democrats relinquish control.

On the broader policy side, House Republicans are expected to serve as a stumbling block for various Democratic policy priorities in 2025 and 2026, but House Republican Leader Matt Hall said Wednesday there are still policies for which bipartisan consensus is possible.

“I hope they don’t insist on policies that put them in the minority,” Hall said Wednesday. “And we can focus on the common-sense issues the governor talked about, like finding a permanent road funding mechanism.”

House Speaker Joe Tate, a Democrat from Detroit who said Wednesday he will not run for minority leader, said Democratic candidates are “leaving everything on the field” to maintain the majority. She said the caucus will “seek every opportunity” to work in a bipartisan manner and “provide a voice of reason” in the lower house through January.

“Make no mistake,” Tate said. “The election results represent an opportunity to recover and rebuild in the coming period. House Democrats will work to regain the majority and deliver a brighter future for the millions of residents who call Michigan their home.”

In a statement Wednesday, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer thanked Tate for her service and said she looked forward to working with the Republican majority.

“As governor, I signed more than 1,400 bipartisan bills and six balanced, bipartisan budgets,” Whitmer said. “I am ready to work with anyone who is serious about solving problems, and I look forward to collaborating with the next majority on our common goals, from infrastructure to economic development.”

How did the GOP upset the House?

With Trump’s help, House Republicans regained the majority in the House, retaining several key sensitive seats, including the Oakland County seats held by GOP Reps. Mark Tisdel of Rochester Hills and Donni Steele of Orion Township, as well as the Jackson County seat. Organized by Jackson State Representative Kathy Schmaltz.

Republicans also flipped four Democratic seats in the lower chamber to secure a majority

Final, unofficial vote totals show House Republicans were able to take the seats of Democratic state Rep. Nate Shannon of Sterling Heights, Jaime Churches of Wyandotte, Jim Haadsma of Battle Creek and Jenn Hill of Marquette. Those candidates lost to Republicans Ron Robinson of Utica, Rylee Linting of Grosse Ile, Steve Frisbie of Battle Creek and Karl Bohnak of Negaunee, respectively.

Republicans have been vastly outnumbered by Democrats in their campaigns for the House of Representatives. But Trump’s unprecedented comeback in Michigan has helped GOP candidates, as his growing margins across the state have lifted each of the candidates.

The GOP also got help from Michigan Republican heavyweights, including former Gov. Rick Snyder and John Engler, Upjohn family heir and Republican megadonor Bill Parfet, and the DeVos family.

Before that support can happen, Hall said, House Republicans must convince donors and candidates that they are running a serious operation even as the state party is in disarray.

“When the Michigan Republican Party wasn’t stable, we had to go to them and say, ‘House Republicans have a plan and we’re going to win,'” Hall said. “It wasn’t easy.”

Democrats may also have been misled by their over-reliance on abortion attack ads during the campaign, in the belief that the issue would be as influential as the 2022 elections, when voters enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution. John Sellek is the CEO of Michigan-based consulting firm Harbor Strategic Public Affairs.

“Obviously there was more political influence on reproductive rights,” Sellek said. “But sometimes it seemed like the only button they were pressing, to the detriment of economic problems.”

As constitutional amendments make their way to voters in states across the country, voters are learning they can both vote to protect reproductive rights and “vote their wallets separately,” Sellek said.

Struggle to lead meetings

Starting Thursday, House Republicans and Democrats will begin negotiating over who will lead their caucuses in the next session.

With Tate dropping out of the leadership race, Democratic state Reps. Laurie Pohutksy of Livonia and Jason Morgan of Ann Arbor announced their hopes of leading the caucus.

Pohutsky, a third-term lawmaker and current pro-speaker, said he has served in both the minority and the majority, on the front lines and in safe areas, and considers himself both progressive and practical. These experiences, he said, will contribute to leading the party into its new reality.

“I think there needs to be a very concentrated effort to work across the aisle,” Pohutsky said of the next session. “We were successful at that when we were in the minority. I think we can do it again.”

Morgan, a first-term lawmaker, announced his intention to run for leadership on Wednesday, arguing that he could “bring together the diverse voices of our state” and fight for “people-centered priorities.”

“Last night’s election results were not what we hoped for, but the work begins now to continue our fight to put people first,” Morgan said.

After helping recapture the majority for the GOP, Hall is the most likely choice to lead House Republicans as speaker. On Wednesday, he was confident about his chances after saying his leadership was making an “unprecedented effort” to take back power from Democrats.

“I think we’re in a very strong position, I’m going to win and I’m going to be speaker of the House of Representatives,” Hall said.

But first-term Republican Rep. Tom Kunse of Clare argued that the party needs a leader who can bring Republicans together rather than someone focused solely on tearing apart the Democratic party. Kunse added that Tuesday’s victory belongs to all the party members who are in the trenches knocking on doors and fundraising, from Battle Creek to Marquette, from Grosse Ile to Wyoming.

“His goal is to fight the Democrats,” Kunse said. “And my goal is to support Republicans.”

But Sellek noted that a big part of the task ahead of Republicans (with a Democratic governor and Senate) is to create a foil to Democrats’ policies and achieve bipartisan victories. He said it took some courage.

“Matt Hall’s job as minority leader to keep his group together and stand up to Joe Tate is a brutal job,” Sellek said. Similarly, the speaker’s role in divided government “is challenging and will require someone who is willing to be ruthless,” he said.

One of the final tests for Hall as minority leader will be handling what is expected to be a busy lame-duck session, with Democrats taking advantage of their last chance to advance policy through chambers they control and the governor’s office.

Pressured demands that could be addressed include: business development incentive funding, possible changes to new tipped wage and paid sick leave laws, and polluter pay and carbon capture legislation.

“There’s definitely going to be a lot of pressure, driven by the anxiety of not being able to control things anymore, but also fueled in some ways by the anxiety of not being as productive as they hope on key policy issues,” Sellek said.

Tate did not respond to a request for an interview about the lame duck plans.

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