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Implications from the 2024 elections

Harry November 6, 2024

By STEVE PEOPLES and BILL BARROW, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump He won a decisive victory in a deeply divided country. And in doing so, the Republican president-elect exposed a fundamental weakness within the Democratic base and quelled concerns about his moral failings, becoming the first US president to do so. felony conviction.

The Republican former president won the support of disillusioned voters with bold promises that America’s first fiery brand of economic populism and conservative culture would change their lives for the better. But he will be put to the test immediately, and there is reason to believe that his plans for mass deportations and high tariffs could harm the very people who made his victory possible.

Still, he is poised to enter the White House on January 20, 2025, with unquestionable power. With votes still being counted, Trump could become the first Republican to win the popular vote in two decades.

The results have left Democrats facing an immediate and immediate reckoning, with no clear leader to unite the anti-Trump coalition and no clear plan to rebuild as an emboldened Trump prepares to retake Washington.

Here are some key takeaways:

Trump undermines Democrats’ coalition with modest changes

Black voters (male and female) are the base of the Democratic Party, and in recent years they have been joined by Latinos and younger voters.

All three groups still preferred Democrat Kamala Harris. But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 115,000 voters, suggested Trump made significant gains.

Voters under 30 represent a small share of the total electorate, but about half of them support Harris. That’s compared to nearly 6 in 10 voters who supported Biden in 2020. Just over 4 in 10 young voters voted for Trump, up from more than one-third in 2020.

At the same time, black and Latino voters appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to support Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.

About 8 in 10 Black voters supported Harris, compared to nearly 9 in 10 who supported Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was slightly lower than the nearly 6 in 10 who supported Biden in 2020. Among these groups, Trump’s support appeared to be up slightly compared to 2020. Collectively, these small gains resulted in a huge result.

Trump’s focus on immigration, economy and culture has paid off

For all the showmanship, swearing and name-calling, Trump eventually won voters’ support with his siren call to improve the economy, stem the flow of immigrants at the Southern border and “make America great again.”

He also appealed to religious voters in both parties, capitalizing on Democrats’ support for the transgender community.

Overall, about half of Trump voters said inflation was the biggest issue influencing their election decision. Many people said the same thing about the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to AP VoteCast.

He cited the fact that by most conventional measures the economy is solid (inflation is largely under control and wages are rising) while border crossings are down dramatically. He convinced voters by going over the facts and incessant repetition.

He also sold them on the promise of the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history, although he did not explain how such an operation would work. And it is threatening to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other American rivals; Economists warn this could significantly raise prices for average Americans.

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People watch screens showing poll results at a viewing party hosted by the Young Republican Club of New York on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

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After all, Trump’s victory may also have something to do with the fundamental challenges Harris has faced from the beginning. Facing deep voter disappointment with the direction of the country, Biden’s low approval rating has never distanced himself from his party’s incumbent president. Even though Trump has been the central figure of American politics for nine years, he has convinced voters that he represents change.

Trump will take responsibility for a country with deep cracks

Trump is poised to inherit a country with deepening political and cultural rifts and anxious voters.

When asked what influenced their vote the most, nearly half of voters said: future of democracy. This rate was higher than the rate of respondents who responded similarly on inflation, immigration or abortion policy. And it beats both major parties: About two-thirds of Harris voters and about one-third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their vote.

This is no surprise given the realities of the Trump era and the rhetoric of the campaign.

Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat in 2020 and watched his supporters loot the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as Congress met to certify Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Even two days before Election Day, Trump mused: “I shouldn’t have gone” After the White House repeatedly vowed revenge on its political enemies.

By the end of the campaign, Harris joined other critics, including Trump’s former White House chief of staff, in calling the former president a “fascist.” Trump, meanwhile, labeled Harris a “fascist” and a “communist.”

Trump’s criminal burden is no problem for many voters

The incomplete returns suggest that Donald Trump’s criminal convictions, additional pending indictments and concerns about his most incendiary rhetoric are not enough of a concern to prevent tens of millions of Americans from voting for him.

Just over half of voters say Harris has the moral character to be president, compared to 4 in 10 who say the same about Trump, according to AP VoteCast. As Trump has said many times on the campaign trail, it’s quite possible that his legal jeopardy will actually help him.

As it stands now, Trump may never face sentencing in the business fraud case in New York, where he was convicted of 34 felonies. For now its punishment is planned for later this month.

He already had a federal indictment dismissed in Florida, sparing him from a hearing on whether he violated a law protecting U.S. national security secrets. And he has made clear that he will use his authority as president to file federal charges against him for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. This will leave a racketeering case pending in Georgia against Trump and others accused of trying to overturn the 2020 election results.

‘Brother’ politics eliminates abortion concerns

This is the Supreme Court’s decision in Roe v. It was the first presidential election held after he overturned the Wade case and ended a woman’s national right to terminate a pregnancy. This was also the first time a Republican presidential candidate had over-wooed men with a hyper-masculine approach.

However, the resulting “gender gap” was not enough to sink Trump.

About half of women support Harris, while about half of men support Trump, according to AP VoteCast. This seems largely consistent with Biden and Trump’s holdings in 2020.

Democrats face leadership crisis and urgent need to regroup

Just a few months ago, Harris caused an incredible stir in the party. He apparently raised over a billion dollars overnight. He dominated his debate with Trump. It filled the arenas. And just a few days ago, huge crowds came to the Ellipse and the National Mall.

But in the end it wasn’t enough.

Republicans, meanwhile, took control of the Senate, unseating veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and pushing many other Democratic incumbents to the brink of defeat. The results will give Trump a significant advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress. Their only hope is to win a House majority drawn mostly from key suburban districts in California and New York, but that was far from certain early Wednesday.

Either way, the results narrow Democrats’ geographic footprint and, with Brown’s loss, also diminish the working-class voice that might oppose Trump’s call.

Trump has already succeeded in portraying Democrats as culturally disconnected from Middle America. Now Democrats are wondering how they can reconnect with parts of the country and segments of voters who rejected them.

First Publication Date: November 5, 2024 20:08 PST

Semainede4jours

Semainede4jours

Implications from the 2024 elections

Trump undermines Democrats’ coalition with modest changes

Trump’s focus on immigration, economy and culture has paid off

Trump will take responsibility for a country with deep cracks

Trump’s criminal burden is no problem for many voters

Harry

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Implications from the 2024 elections

Trump undermines Democrats’ coalition with modest changes

Trump’s focus on immigration, economy and culture has paid off

Trump will take responsibility for a country with deep cracks

Trump’s criminal burden is no problem for many voters

Harry

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