Polls show voters trust Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris to manage the economy, but analysts say the strong performance of the U.S. economy and other financial trends could help Trump triumph.

Economists at Moody’s Analytics examined past presidential elections to find the economic variables that best predict election outcomes.

Rising median household income is another factor that could lead some voters to view Biden-Harris’ record on the economy more favorably.

Personal income increased by more than 5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024. This rate slowed to 3.1% in the third quarterbut it was still above the 10-year average of 2.9%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

But consumer confidence paints a more mixed picture.

Moody’s sees consumers confident enough to re-elect a Democrat to the White House as the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence remains near the decades-old average.

But voters’ dissatisfaction with the economy emerges more clearly in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.