The first College Football Playoff Rankings of 2024 are almost here. Before the CFP committee announces the rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will end up.

SURVEYS: Latest top 25 rankings

The first of six CFP top 25 reveals will take place on Tuesday, November 5 (here is the full program). Here’s a prediction on how the committee might rank the top 25 teams ahead of the announcement. Note that these are my guesses and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams, and more to help rank teams the way I think the CFP committee would. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.

2024 College Football Playoff seeding predictions: First Top 25 predictions

These predictions are as of Monday, November 4th.

1. Oregon (9-0) — Oregon went undefeated with a win over Ohio State. The Ducks will be seeded 1st.
2. Ohio State (7-1) — Ohio State’s only loss of the season was to the No. 1 team in the nation, Oregon, defeating a Penn State team likely to be ranked in the committee’s top 10. The only thing that could keep the Buckeyes out of the top two is their non-conference schedule.
3. Georgia (7-1) — Georgia ranks behind Ohio State because its loss came to an Alabama team that was worse than Oregon. However, the Bulldogs earned the No. 3 seed by beating ranked teams Clemson and Texas.
4. BYU (8-0) — BYU may surprise some with its rankings on Tuesday. The Cougars are undefeated and have notable wins over Kansas State and SMU to bolster their resume. This removes any questions the committee had about the strength of the program.
5. Miami (FL) (9-0) — Miami is undefeated, but its only win against a team the committee will rank will be Louisville. As a potentially winless team, Miami falls outside the top four.
6. Tennessee (7-1) — Tennessee’s only loss came to Arkansas, but a win over Alabama was what vaulted the Vols into the top six.
7. Texas (7-1) — Texas sits in seventh place because its wins over Michigan, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt haven’t aged well. Factor in a multi-score loss that none of the top six teams have had, and the Longhorns are ranked just right.
8. Penn State (7-1) — Penn State’s best win was against an Illinois team that already had three losses. The Nittany Lions are also coming off their first loss (to Ohio State), which will be fresh on the committee’s mind.
9. Indiana (9-0) — Indiana is undefeated, but its schedule is the worst among the undefeated four in the top 10. The Hoosiers couldn’t beat a team even considering the initial CFP rankings.
10. Alabama (6-2) — Alabama is in the top 10 due to wins over Georgia and Missouri. The Tide has losses against Vanderbilt and Tennessee, but those wins, especially the one against the Bulldogs, put Alabama in the top 10.
11. SMU (8-1) — SMU’s only loss was to the BYU team, which I think the committee will focus on. Add in wins over Louisville and most recently Pitt, and the Mustangs have the overall CFP finish.
12. Notre Dame (7-1) — Notre Dame has a win over Texas A&M, but its home loss to Northern Illinois is dazzling. This will keep the Fighting Irish out of the playoffs for now.
13. Texas A&M (7-2) — Because head-to-head competition is important, Texas A&M remains behind Notre Dame but ahead of LSU even after a bad loss to South Carolina.
14. LSU (6-2) — LSU’s loss to USC stale like sour grapes. But a win against Ole Miss will keep the Tigers on the bubble in the early CFP rankings.
15. Boise State (7-1) — Boise State lost to the No. 1 team in the country by just three points and beat a Washington State team, now 7-1, by three goals. The Broncos opened the CFP rankings in the top 15 despite the committee having historically ranked teams outside the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC lower.
16. Ole Miss (7-2) — Ole Miss lost its two games by a total of six points. While the non-conference schedule leaves a lot to be desired, a win over South Carolina looks better.
17. Iowa State (7-1) — Iowa State lost to unranked Texas Tech by one point. However, a nonconference win over Iowa weighs in to open it at No. 17.
18. Pittsburgh (7-1) — Pitt is coming off a loss to SMU, but the Panthers are still a one-loss team. If Pitt’s only loss comes to a ranked team, it will be ranked in the top 20.
19. Kansas State (7-2) — A loss against Houston was unexpected and put distance between Kansas State and the playoff bubble, but a win against Colorado looks much better than it did then.
20. Ordu (8-0) — Army is 8-0 but has neither defeated a team nor played a team the committee would consider. However, the Black Knights remain in the top 20 after an undefeated start.
21. Louisville (6-3) — Louisville’s win over Clemson gave the Cardinals a big win to make up for three straight losses to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami (all top-12 teams).
22. Clemson (6-2) — Even though Clemson’s loss was less than that of Louisville, head-to-head competition is important here.
23. South Carolina (5-3) — South Carolina beat Texas A&M by 24 points. South Carolina’s three losses came to ranked teams, but this win helped them move into the rankings.
24. Missouri (6-2) — Missouri has two losses against Alabama and Texas A&M, but its win over Vanderbilt earns it a spot in the rankings.
25. Colorado (6-2) — Colorado opens just outside the top 20, as a legitimate case can be made that its best win this season was against North Dakota State.

Important College Football Playoff rankings questions

How big is Notre Dame’s fault?

Northern Illinois’ loss could mean a lot, or it could mean a lot. What the committee thinks will determine whether Notre Dame starts in the top 10 or outside the projected playoff field.

Where does the highest-ranked team with two losses land?

2024 will be the first year a two-loss team makes the College Football Playoff. The initial CFP rankings are important as we learn how the committee views two-loss teams in this new format.

What does the committee think of Boise State?

Boise State is ranked No. 12 in the AP poll and No. 14 in the coaches’ poll, but neither poll affects the CFP rankings. Could Boise State be higher than No. 12? This is a possibility.

How important will the strength of the program be?

In recent years, the CFP committee has placed heavy emphasis on the strength of the program. I also reflected this in some of my predictions. However, since this is a new committee, things may be different. The committee’s perspective on SOS will impact teams like Miami (FL), Indiana and more.