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    • Here’s Who Is Leading in the Key Election Battlegrounds of 2024?
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    Here’s Who Is Leading in the Key Election Battlegrounds of 2024?

    Harry Posted on

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    The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has turned into a virtual toss-up, with final pre-election polls on Sunday and Monday showing the candidates splitting seven swing states, with crucial Pennsylvania nearly tied.

    Basic Information

    Nevada: This is also a problem; Trump leads by 0.3 points. five thirty eight average, but Times/Siena questionnaire It shows Harris leading 49%-46%, and YouGov shows Harris leading 48%-47%, with Emerson in a 48% tie.

    Georgia: This is Trump’s very slim advantage; FiveThirtyEight has a 0.7 point lead on its average, leading the rankings 50%-49%. Emerson’s rating50%-48% Morning Consultation The poll has her leading 48% to 46%, while YouGov’s poll has Harris leading 48% to 47%, according to the Times/Siena poll.

    North Carolina: Another narrow Trump advantage; ahead by 0.9 points Data from FiveThirtyEightand although she is ahead 49%-48% according to Emerson, 49%-47% according to Morning Consult, and 48%-47% according to YouGov, Harris has a 48%-46% lead in Times/Siena. questionnaire.

    Michigan: Harris has the edge in terms of margin of error; He’s ahead by one point in FiveThirtyEight’s data, 50% to 48% in the Emerson poll, 49% to 48% in the Morning Consult poll and 47% to 45% according to YouGov, but they’re tied at 47% in the ‘New York Times/Siena’ questionnaire.

    Wisconsin: Harris has a slight advantage; ahead by 1.1 points per capita. five thirty eightHe leads Trump 48%-45% according to YouGov and 49%-47% according to Times/Siena, but they are tied at 49% in Emerson’s poll and Morning Consult has him ahead by about a point It seems to be.

    Arizona: That’s the largest margin of any swing state, and it’s still extremely close – Trump leads by 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight average and 49%-45% according to Times/Siena, 50%-48% and 48% according to Emerson -47% ahead. Morning Consult found a 48% tie, according to YouGov.

    Big Number

    1.1 points. Harris leads in FiveThirtyEight’s national poll average.

    Whose Favorite Is It to Win the Election?

    It is extremely close. FiveThirtyEight While giving Trump a 52% chance of winning, statistician Nate Silver put your luck It is at 50.4%. If the above polling averages hold true in all seven swing states, Harris will have a narrow electoral victory; but surveys can be closed easilyand even a little mistake It could lead to a Trump or Harris landslide in either direction.

    Is Iowa the Swing State?

    Probably not, but a new poll out Saturday raised some eyebrows. Famous pollster J. Ann Selzer I found Harris He leads Trump 47%-44%, a shocking result given Selzer’s stature and Iowa’s status as a red state. Most other polls in Iowa show Trump with a significant lead. It’s unclear whether the poll’s findings, which suggest women, independents and older voters are staunchly opposed to Trump, will be replicated in other swing states like neighboring Wisconsin.

    Tangent

    Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on July 21 amid an internal party revolt following her debate performance; This dramatically changed the Democrats’ fortunes. Before the shift, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, even though Biden won six of seven states (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

    Further Reading

    Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads in 4 New Polls (Forbes)

    Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly in One of Her Key States (Forbes)

    Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads by Less than 1 Point in Poll Averages (Forbes)

    North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie in New 7th Swing State (Forbes)

    Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Polls Show Trump Leading in Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

    Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Narrow Lead But Struggles with Latino Voters (Forbes)

    Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump With Slight Advantage (Forbes)

    Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Has Advantage in Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)

    Harry
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