TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Southern Caribbean on Monday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center predicts this system will become a Category 1 hurricane near the western tip of Cuba on Wednesday.

As always, the WCTV First Alert Weather Team is monitoring this closely, but the level of concern is low with this system.

Models have a pretty good consensus that this tropical system will move north/northwestward and move into the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week.

Conditions are not favorable for tropical systems in the Gulf due to wind shear, dry air, and cooler water temperatures. As a result, we expect some weakening on Thursday and Friday.

At this point the guidance model looks like it will take this system into the central Gulf of Mexico and south of our region, but we expect an increase in tropical moisture on Wednesday and Thursday.

After a recent drought, much-needed rain looks likely in the Big Bend and South Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday. Some pockets of heavier rain are possible.

As of 16:00 on Monday, winds in Rafael are 45 mph and the minimum pressure is 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica, a Hurricane Warning for the Cayman Islands, and a Hurricane Watch for parts of Cuba.

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