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Tropical Depression 18 is in form, expected to enter the Gulf as a hurricane

Harry November 5, 2024

SOUTH MISSISSIPPI – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is monitoring newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen in the Caribbean Sea. It is expected to become a hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico this week.

Data from Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images and surface observations showed that a low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea had developed a well-defined center and was producing organized deep storm activity, according to the National Hurricane Center on Monday morning. Therefore, the system finally met the criteria for a tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eighteen was in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on Monday morning.(wlox)

Tropical Depression Eighteen is expected to move into the Gulf late this week.(wlox)

TD Eighteen is expected to become a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf later this week(wlox)

Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable enough for TD Eighteen to strengthen. It is expected to become a tropical storm by Monday PM. The next available name is Rafael.

The forecast indicates the hurricane could reach category one hurricane strength within a few days as it crosses western Cuba and moves into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday PM or Thursday.

WHAT WILL BE THE STEERING ORDER?

Where this potential system goes once it enters the Gulf will ultimately depend on the strength of the high pressure system over the southeastern United States and the western Atlantic.

One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is large and powerful. This... — One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is large and powerful. This will help prevent TD Eighteen from coming into the northern Gulf and instead redirect the system further west.(wlox)

One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is weak and small. This... — One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is weak and small. This will allow Eighteen to approach the northern Gulf.(wlox)

WHAT FACTORS CAN WEAKNESSE OR STRENGTHEN THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM?

Are you working in favor of the possible system? Sea surface temperatures and low wind shear in the Southern Gulf. Are you working against the possible system? Land interaction with Cuba this week, lack of deep warm Gulf water, stronger wind shear near the northern Gulf.

Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough to support the tropical system concentrated in the Gulf... — Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough to support a tropical system concentrated in the Gulf and Caribbean.(wlox)

Sea surface water temperatures across much of the Gulf and Caribbean are warmer than normal in November.(wlox)

Deep warm water in the Caribbean will help strengthen TD Eighteen. But the Gulf is hot... — Deep warm water in the Caribbean will help strengthen TD Eighteen. But the Gulf’s warm water is shallow and there is plenty of cold water below the surface. So this will help limit the strength of the Eighteen from becoming a major storm.(wlox)

Dry air in TD Eighteen's path may help limit how strong it can be. — Dry air in TD Eighteen’s path may help limit how strong it can be.(wlox)

Low wind shear over the next few days may help TD Eighteen strengthen. But... — Low wind shear over the next few days may help TD Eighteen strengthen. But there is strong wind shear in the northern Gulf, so if Eighteen comes into the northern Gulf then that strong wind shear will help limit any strengthening.(wlox)

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI?

Because TD Eighteen has been installed recently, it may take some time for models to become more accurate with specific details such as the signature and density of this system.

For now, our local forecast calls for a slightly higher chance of rain around Friday and Saturday, which could be associated with tropical weather. And depending on how close TD Eighteen gets to us, we may have windy weather on those days.