As an investor and stock market columnist, I have many successes and also many failures. One of my shortcomings is that I pay little attention to momentum.

When a stock rises 200% or more, my instinct is to suspect it will fall again. This is often wrong because market leaders are often doing something right.

This year Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) is leading the parade of winners among large-cap stocks (those with a market cap of $10 billion or more). It was up 628% through November 1st.

Carvana Co. (CVNA) ranks second with a 333% gain. AppLovin Corp followed with a 310% gain. (APP), MicroStrategy Inc. with a 264% gain. (MSTR) and Vistra Corp., up 213%. (VST) is following.

Here are a few thoughts on these top-performing stocks.

Summit Therapies

Summit Therapeutics has become a top stock this year, doubling down on hopes for its new cancer drug ivonescrimab. The company’s co-CEO, Mary Zanganeh, an Iranian immigrant, became a billionaire.

Co-CEO Bob Duggan had already been a billionaire for a decade based on his previous drug development work.

Ivonescrimab is in Phase 3 clinical trials (end stage) in the United States. It has already been approved for use in China. The company hopes it can be used to treat lung, kidney and breast cancer.

The drug was developed by Akeso, a Hong Kong company. Summit paid $500 million to license it and will pay up to $4.5 billion more if certain financial goals are met.

Summit has no revenue yet. As of November 1, its market capitalization is $14 billion.

to the caravan

Carvana, where second-hand cars are sold online and delivered from buildings that resemble giant vending machines, is attracting the attention of retail investors.

Carvana stock offers excitement and chills. It reached an all-time high of $376 in 2021. The following year they fell below $4. It’s now back to around $229.

Short sellers like to bet against Carvana. As of mid-October, they had shorted more than 13 million shares, or about 11% of outstanding shares.

The numbers seem to support the view of short sellers. Carvana’s debt is 10 times the company’s net worth. And the stock is selling for 102 times the company’s profits; That’s an inflated rate in my book.

AppLovin

Headquartered in Palo Alto, California, AppLovin provides software to mobile app developers. Its clients included Amanotes, CommerceBear, Kolibri Games, Music World Media, Ubisoft and Zynga.

It’s a growing market, but growth has slowed somewhat, according to EMarketer. The average smartphone user will install about 18.5 apps in 2023, up from about 21 apps in 2020, the information firm says.

AppLovin’s dividend over the last four quarters was approximately $2.35. Analysts expect a steady increase to $5.86 per share in 2026. 14 of 22 analysts following the company recommend it.

MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy is a software manufacturer based in Tysons Corner, Virginia. But the stock does not move primarily based on the results of this business. Rather, investors and speculators are using it as an amplified play on Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy is a software manufacturer based in Tysons Corner, Virginia. But the stock does not move primarily based on the results of this business. Rather, investors and speculators are using it as an amplified play on Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy is a software manufacturer based in Tysons Corner, Virginia. But the stock does not move primarily based on the results of this business. Rather, investors and speculators are using it as an amplified play on Bitcoin.

The company is the largest institutional owner of Bitcoin, with a stock of 252,220 Bitcoins as of September 20; This amounts to roughly 1.2% of all money in circulation. At the beginning of November, Bitcoin stock was worth approximately $17.3 billion, or 37% of the company’s market cap ($46.5 billion).

MicroStrategy has reported losses in three of the last four years and three of the last four quarters.

Vista

Headquartered in Irving, Texas, Vistra Corp. is a power generation company with nuclear, coal, natural gas and solar facilities. Investors are excited about energy production for the first time in decades because AI data centers use so much electricity.

The logic makes sense and some smart investors are in the stock. Since the company’s debt is three times its equity, I’m unlikely to agree with them. I prefer stocks with less debt than equity.

Record

I’ve been very skeptical of big winners in the past. The stocks I recommended in 11 articles on this subject gained an average of 16.9% in value in 12 months. This outpaces the 16.5% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index.

It would be nice if the story ended here, but it doesn’t. The big winners, which I usually say to avoid because they seem too expensive to me, returned an average of 40.5%.

Note that my column results are hypothetical and should not be confused with the results I have obtained for clients. Also, past performance does not predict the future.

Disclosure: I have a short position in MicroStrategy in a hedge fund I manage.