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    • A hurricane is expected to enter the Gulf this week
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    A hurricane is expected to enter the Gulf this week

    Harry Posted on

    SOUTH MISSISSIPPI – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is covering the tropics. A hurricane is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico this week.

    As of Monday morning, the area to watch is in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica. It’s called PTC Eighteen because it will likely become a tropical system. For now, this is not a hurricane. And it’s not yet well organized enough to create a tropical storm or depression. So it’s just a tropical wave or disturbance.

    PTC 18 was located in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on Monday morning.
    PTC 18 was located in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on Monday morning.(wlox)
    PTC 18 is expected to move into the Gulf later this week.
    PTC 18 is expected to move into the Gulf later this week.(wlox)
    A hurricane is expected to hit the Gulf this weekend.
    A hurricane is expected to hit the Gulf this weekend.(wlox)

    However, environmental conditions are expected to be suitable for it to become a system in the near future. It is expected to become a tropical storm by Monday PM. The forecast indicates the hurricane could reach category one hurricane strength within a few days as it crosses western Cuba and moves into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday PM or Thursday.

    WHAT WILL BE THE STEERING ORDER?

    Where this potential system goes once it enters the Gulf will ultimately depend on the strength of the high pressure system over the southeastern United States and the western Atlantic.

    One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is large and powerful. This...
    One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is large and powerful. This will help prevent the tropical system from emerging into the northern Gulf and instead direct it further west.(wlox)
    One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is weak and small. This...
    One possible scenario is that the steering high pressure system is weak and small. This will allow the tropical system to move closer to the northern Gulf.(wlox)

    WHAT FACTORS CAN WEAKNESSE OR STRENGTHEN THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM?

    Are you working in favor of the possible system? Sea surface temperatures and low wind shear in the Southern Gulf. Are you working against the possible system? Land interaction with Cuba this week, lack of deep warm Gulf water, stronger wind shear near the northern Gulf.

    Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough for systems to form in the Gulf and Caribbean.
    Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough for systems to form in the Gulf and Caribbean.(wlox)
    Sea surface water temperatures across much of the Gulf and Caribbean are warmer than normal in November.
    Sea surface water temperatures across much of the Gulf and Caribbean are warmer than normal in November.(wlox)
    Deep warm water in the Caribbean will help strengthen the potential system. But...
    Deep warm water in the Caribbean will help strengthen the potential system. But the Gulf’s warm water is shallow and there is plenty of cold water below the surface. So this will help limit the power of the possible system.(wlox)
    Dry air in the path of a possible tropical system could help limit how strong the system could become.
    Dry air in the path of a possible tropical system could help limit how strong the system could become.(wlox)
    Low wind shear over the next few days may help strengthen the possible tropical system....
    Low wind shear over the next few days may help strengthen the possible tropical system. However, there is a strong wind shear in the northern Gulf, so if the potential tropical system comes into the northern Gulf then this strong wind shear will help limit any strengthening.(wlox)

    WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI?

    Until this system becomes more organized, models will deal with specific details of this system, such as trace and density.

    For now, our local forecast calls for a slightly higher chance of rain around Friday and Saturday, which could be associated with tropical weather. And depending on how close the potential system moves to us, we may have windy weather on those days.

    In the meantime, it’s a good idea to double-check the forecast as details will likely become clearer in the coming days.

    This is a good reminder that hurricane season doesn’t officially end until November 30th.

    By the way, only 3 hurricanes have reached the US in November since 1850.

    November Hurricane Falls since 1850
    November Hurricane Falls since 1850(WLOX)

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    Copyright 2024 WLOX. All rights reserved.

    Harry
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