ORLANDO, Fla. – Currently identified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, the developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to transform into Hurricane Rafael in the coming days, becoming the 11th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. The already busier-than-average season saw frequent activity, with 11 tornadoes compared to the usual 7.

Forecasters predict that Rafael will remain more than 250 miles west of the region, sparing local areas from significant impacts. The current forecast calls for minimal impact, with showers on Wednesday and Thursday, with the possibility of an isolated tornado. Winds could gust between 25 and 35 mph in rain-affected areas, but major disruptions are not expected.

Previous model predictions pointed to a closer transition; this would pose the threat of flooding and more severe weather. But the storm’s westward track, combined with cooler Gulf waters and strong wind shear along the I-10 corridor, is expected to weaken Rafael to a tropical storm before it reaches the upper Gulf Coast.

Despite the direction of the storm, the region will experience an increase in humidity in the middle of the week, causing conditions to look more summer-like. Precipitation totals are forecast to range from 1 to 3 inches, and temperatures will remain warmer than normal; Highs will be in the mid-80s, about 5 degrees above average.

While the overall tornado threat is considered low, residents are encouraged to stay updated on the storm’s progress in case conditions change.