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Here’s Who Is Leading in the Key Election Battlegrounds of 2024?
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Here’s Who Is Leading in the Key Election Battlegrounds of 2024?

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The volatile state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has been effectively tied, with the latest New York Times pre-election poll showing Harris leading in four of seven states, leading Trump in one and tied in the other two. Poll averages show no candidate leading by more than 2.5 points in any of the seven battlegrounds.

Basic Information

Pennsylvania: It doesn’t get any closer than this; candidates are tied at 48% in both the New York Times and Siena questionnaire (margin of error 3.5 points) and with Morning Consult survey fly other ties Last week, Harris was ahead 50%-48% on Marist. questionnaire and 48%-47% in the Washington Post. questionnaireand ahead by a wide margin of 49%-48% Cooperative Election Study Even though Trump was up 47%-46% in the poll on Wednesday. quinnipiac questionnaire. Trump leads Harris by 0.2 points on FiveThirtyEight voting average.

North Carolina: Harris leads New York Times/Siena 48%-46% questionnaire on Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points) and 48%-47% CNN/SSRS poll It was announced Thursday (margin of error 4.5 points), but some other recent polls show Trump ahead; Fox News Last week’s poll showed him leading 49%-47% in a two-way contest, while polls showed him leading 50%-48%. Cooperative Election Study, Marist And Emerson College. Five Thirty Eight average It shows Trump’s 1.3 point advantage.

Georgia: Harris leads 48-47% in New York Times/Siena poll, Trump leads 48-47% on Thursday CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.7) and a more significant increase of 51%-46% in the CES survey (2,663 respondents). Trump leads by 1.5 points on FiveThirtyEight voting average.

Michigan: Harris and Trump tied at 47% in New York Times/Siena questionnaireHarris leads Marist by three points, 51%-48% questionnaireWhile Trump has a rare lead Washington Post poll Data released Thursday shows her winning 47% to 45% among registered voters, but three other polls this week show Harris with an advantage. Fox News 48%-46% in survey (albeit a 49% tie without third parties), 51%-46% in CES survey (2,336 respondents), and 48%-43% in survey CNN/SSRS poll—Trump is ahead 49%-48% Emerson research Published on Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris leads Michigan by 0.7 points on FiveThirtyEight voting average.

Wisconsin: Harris leads New York Times/Siena 49%-47% questionnaire50%-48% at Marist questionnaire50%-47% in CES survey (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in survey CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% Marquette pollTrump rose from 49% to 48% in Emerson. questionnaire and the two candidates are tied at 48% on Quinnipiac questionnaire. Harris leads by 0.8 points on FiveThirtyEight average.

Nevada: New York Times/Siena questionnaire Harris leads Trump by 49%-46%, while Emerson questionnaire The report, released Friday, found Harris ahead 48%-47% (margin of error 3.6 points) and up 51%-47% at CES questionnaire (933 respondents), but Trump leads 48%-47% on CNN/SSRS questionnaire Published on Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points). Trump leads by 0.7 points on FiveThirtyEight voting average.

Arizona: Trump leads 49%-45% in New York Times/Siena questionnaire50%-49% ahead in Marist poll, up 51%-47% in CES poll (2,066 respondents) questionnaire Published October 24 (margin of error 3.7) and Washington Post-Schar School 49%-46% questionnaire (margin of error 5), while Harris is ahead 48-47% in the CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump rises 2.6 points on FiveThirtyEight voting average.

Big Number

1 point. Harris ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s national poll average.

Tangent

Harris leads voters 49 percent to 48 percent in seven battleground states. HarrisX/Forbes’ new survey There’s a statistical tie Thursday, but 14% of undecided state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there’s plenty of room for the race to change.

Key Background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on July 21 amid an internal party revolt following her debate performance; This dramatically changed the Democrats’ fortunes. Before the shift, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, even though Biden won six of seven states (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Additional Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads in 4 New Polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly in One of Her Key States (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads by Less than 1 Point in Poll Averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie in New 7th Swing State (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Polls Show Trump Leading in Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Narrow Lead But Struggles with Latino Voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump With Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Has Advantage in Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)