What You Need to Know: As Admiral Lou Yuan suggested in 2019, China’s military strategy includes potentially sinking US aircraft carriers to dominate the Taiwan conflict, banking on the idea that American losses would deter further US intervention.

-But such an action would not only devastate the US Navy, kill thousands and cost billions, but could also trigger a nuclear escalation.

-American leaders will have to respond decisively, possibly with extreme measures, at the risk of global catastrophe.

– This strategic gambit by China, relying on US restraint in a high-casualty scenario, could underestimate America’s resolve to survive and protect its allies.

If China Sinks US Aircraft Carriers, It Could Trigger Nuclear War

As war fever grips the capitals of the world’s great powers, many are wondering when the biggest conflict – the war between China and the United States over the fate of tiny, democratic Taiwan – will occur. explode.

It’s a fair question.

However, some have suggested that this is an unnecessary fear scenario, given that war would undoubtedly be costly for both sides, and that they would eventually back away from the idea of ​​fighting each other once the costs became clear.

If war has occurred, the main battlefield there would be water Near China and Taiwan.

In a naval war, the United States would likely deploy its most powerful naval platform, the aircraft carrier. China understands this. That’s why he spent the better part of a decade anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems across the region to better defend against the threat of US carriers.

These A2/AD networks are meant to keep American carrier forces over the horizon, away from any potential conflict zones, long enough to allow Chinese forces like Taiwan to roughly overrun their own bounties.

Sinking of Two Aircraft Carriers

In 2019, People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Admiral Lou Yuan, one of the Chinese military’s most hawkish leaders in question He said the best way to “solve” the Taiwan crisis in favor of China would be to sink “two US aircraft carriers”. Admiral Lou further explained: “What the United States fears most is casualties. “We’ll see how scared America is.”

The sinking of two US Navy ships would result in the deaths of more than 10,000 people, a massive loss of equipment, and the resulting loss of tens of billions of dollars. Moreover, images of two US carriers sinking (or simply being burned and damaged) would be enough for China to convince much of the Global South to abandon their support for the US dollar and help create an entirely new world. global currency, BRICS dollar. Ultimately, the image of US aircraft carriers being destroyed by Chinese weapons would be the ultimate symbol of the end of American power.

So will this be the end of any crisis with China? Or will the USA respond? Can he respond?

A Terrible Election for America

The truth is that the Chinese With A2/AD systemsthey believe they have the ultimate deterrent against the deployment of powerful US carriers in their immediate vicinity. American leaders understand the type of threat these A2/AD systems pose to the expensive and large flattop systems that form the basis of the U.S. Navy’s surface fleet.

Beijing calculates that Americans won’t even want to risk these expensive systems. If the A2/AD networks could not be destroyed, Washington would keep the carrier force in reserve, leaving it to smaller surface warships and submarines. Although dangerous, the Chinese military thinks they can deal with these threats.

Avoid This Reality at All Costs

Destroying or damaging an aircraft carrier that killed and injured thousands of sailors would likely provoke a strong response from the Americans. Of course, if the Americans cannot deploy their forces close enough to respond to China due to their A2/AD systems, then the Americans will look even weaker. Then things like this nuclear retaliation come to the game.

That’s when we start to get very gloomy.

Frankly, no US politician has the power to do anything in the face of such a massacre. So, while the Chinese will be able to defeat the US aircraft carriers, there will be such a strong reaction from the Americans that the Chinese will suffer great damage as a result.

However, do not doubt that the current leadership in Beijing is arrogant enough to risk such an outcome; They feel that Americans do not have the capacity or will to protect their perceived interests, especially when it comes to China’s intimidation.

About the Author:

Brandon J. WeichertNational Interest national security analystis a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who contributes to The Washington Times, Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. Weichert can be followed on Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Image Credit: Creative Commons image of ‘shock trials’ footage from US Navy.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.