With the election just three days away, former President Donald Trump’s campaign remains uncertain about its prospects in North Carolina, a Sun Belt state it has claimed in two consecutive presidential elections.

When asked why, a Trump campaign official made it clear.

“If there’s one state that can bite you, it’s North Carolina,” the official said.

Follow live politics news here

At the same time, Vice President Kamala Harris’ team, less than two weeks ago He was afraid of the Tar Heel State A senior campaign official said he had “slipped away a little bit” and was now “very much in the game.”

As both campaigns reached North Carolina, dueling viewpoints emerged as candidates rallied voters in a margin-of-error contest that raised the stakes in each battleground. More recently, Trump has veered off course in the final days of the campaign, heading into states like Virginia and New Mexico and declaring that he may expand his map.

He still plans to return to North Carolina every day until the election.

On Saturday, Trump held rallies in Greensboro and Gastonia and visited Virginia in between; Harris, on the other hand, landed in Charlotte for a big rally. Trump will return to Kinston on Sunday and is then scheduled to hold a rally in Raleigh on Monday.

During the Harris campaign helpers on social media Chastising Trump for taking a defensive stance in a state that hasn’t turned blue since 2008, Trump’s campaign has cast repeated visits to North Carolina as an aggressive, all-bases strategy.

“The fate of our nation is now in your hands,” Trump said at his rally in Gastonia on Saturday. “If we win this state, we’re going to win the whole game.”

Like many battlefields, North Carolina’s voting averages It gives Trump a slight advantage by painting the state within the margin of error.

Political dynamics changed sharply in the final months of the race after Hurricane Helene hit the western part of the state, destroying entire towns and displacing large numbers of people in largely rural areas. a flood Misinformation pushed by Trump – even as it is refuted by members his own party’s Democrats feared the narrative was too much to handle.

But Harris remains within striking distance. If he manages to claim the state, he could possibly block Trump’s path to victory. But he still needs to win Pennsylvania, a state where every campaign stands out. landed more than others.

If Harris loses Pennsylvania but keeps Wisconsin and Michigan, the other “blue wall” states, and somehow wins North Carolina, that still wouldn’t be enough to win the race. 270 Electoral College votes required.

He would also need electoral votes from another state, such as Nevada, which President Joe Biden won in 2020. So far, Republicans appear to be stronger than Democrats. early voter turnout In the Silver State, a large group of unaffiliated voters are also participating. It’s unclear how these voters split, and both Election Day turnout and party-line voting are unknown.

A longtime Republican strategist involved in voter turnout efforts in North Carolina who was not authorized to speak publicly said Trump should be encouraged by the strength of his party’s early turnout.

“Prior to this election, Republicans had never had a cumulative advantage in early voting,” the person said. “But this is not just vote shifting. We researched this. Republicans in North Carolina had less cannibalization,” he added, simply referring to the proportion of high-propensity voters who voted earlier.

The early voting growth in the Republican Party this election can be attributed, at least in part, to the party’s intense messaging about early voting. Data as of Friday Shows Republicans leading Democrats In North Carolina. But like Nevada, independent voters make up a large portion of early voters, and how they break down is largely unknown.

Democrats have a very different interpretation of the initial numbers.

“Republicans are definitely doing slightly better than Democrats. But … my reading is that 55% of the early vote is female, and poll after poll shows women supporting Democrats, revealing the largest gender gap in North Carolina history,” Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson said.

Jackson found that suburban voters were voting at rates 2 percentage points higher than their registration shares, and Roe v. He added that in every competitive election since Wade’s downfall, Democrats have outperformed polls of women, independent voters, suburban voters and Republican women.

“That’s why I’m optimistic about this election,” Jackson said. “I think the fact that Trump has visited North Carolina more than any other state in the last few days shows that they see the same thing I do about the early voting numbers and are concerned.”

North Carolina Democrats also expressed confidence that they have a superior ground game. Voter registration numbers have increased since Harris joined the race, and her rallies in the state have attracted large crowds, including Saturday, when nearly 10,000 people attended, according to the campaign. Republicans have cited declining black turnout as a red flag for Democrats in the state, but party strategists say it remains essentially at the pre-Obama levels they expected.

Democrats also outshined Republicans overall with advertising in the state, spending $66.2 million to $42.4 million from Oct. 1 to Nov. 2. But Republicans are closing the gap. A huge ad spending advantage from Oct. 1 to Oct. 26 ($54 million for Democrats and almost $29 million for Republicans), with Republicans narrowly outspending Democrats by $13.7 million to $12.3 million, according to AdImpact. The week evaporated. tracking company

Harris asked voters in Charlotte on Saturday to go to the polls and turn the page against Trump, whom she described as divisive.

“North Carolina, I’m here to ask for your vote. … I pledge to seek common ground and common-sense solutions to the challenges you face,” the vice president said. “I promise to listen to the experts, to listen to the people who disagree with me. Because you see, unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe that people who disagree with me are the enemy.”