A burgeoning weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea looks increasingly likely to escalate into at least one event. tropical depressionAccording to the National Hurricane Center.

The system is now determined 97L investment According to the NHC, there was still a cluster of sporadic showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

But gradual development is expected next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next few days as the system moves across the Central and Western Caribbean, according to the NHC. Three Hurricane Hunter flights are scheduled for 97L on Sunday and Monday.

View of an area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
(FOX Weather)

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WHAT IS ‘INVESTMENT’?

With a subtropical system in the North Atlantic Earning the name Patty early on a Saturday morningIf this disturbance in the Caribbean reaches tropical storm strength, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic list will be Rafael.

“There is general consensus in computer forecast model forecasts that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength by the time it reaches the South Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Expert. Bryan Norcross. “A dense cloud of tropical moisture is expected to return north with the potential storm. This will increase the threat of flooding on the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico starting Monday. Some of the moisture could reach South Florida by midweek.”

But once the system enters the Gulf, the forecast becomes clouded by weak steering currents that add uncertainty to the forecast, Norcross says.

“If the system remains relatively weak, it looks more likely to drift westward, perhaps toward the coast of Mexico,” Norcross said. “But if it’s on the stronger side, it could continue north to part of the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

However, if the storm tries to approach the United States, it could still encounter hostile atmospheric conditions with a lot of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and an unfavorable wind pattern at upper levels.

“So even if it were possible, even if Rafael could strengthen in the southern Gulf, a serious storm on the coast seems very unlikely based on what we know right now,” Norcross said, adding that the system is unlikely to reach the coast in its current state. program will take place around this coming weekend.

“Obviously, we’ll have another week to monitor the tropics, but the likelihood of a significant storm impacting the United States appears low,” he said. “Predictions for a week from now are always murky, of course, so stay tuned.”

BRYAN NORCROSS: FORECAST CONSENSUS SHOWS A TROPICAL SYSTEM TOWARDS THE GULF NEXT WEEK

Another disturbance may merge with 97L near the Caribbean Sea

NHC is also monitoring a low pressure area in the northeastern Caribbean Sea, but the chances of this system developing next week are low.

An area to watch in the Caribbean Sea is moving north-northwestward in the coming days.
(FOX Weather)

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“Some heavy tropical showers will impact the northeastern Caribbean islands over the next few days as the system moves westward,” Norcross said. “Next week it will likely be absorbed by the disturbance developing in the Caribbean.”

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next few days. Even if that happens, the predicted weather won’t change, Norcross said.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

North Atlantic: Welcome to Subtropical Storm Patty

One in the North Atlantic Severe storm strengthened into Subtropical Storm PattyThe National Hurricane Center said Saturday morning.

Subtropical Storm Patty.
(FOX Weather)

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The NHC said Patty had winds of 65 mph and was located approximately 300 miles west/northwest of the Azores.

Predetermined storm Invest 96L, It is expected to maintain its current strength on Saturday and then gradually weaken on Sunday, perhaps becoming a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday, according to the NHC.

Remnants of the storm could reach Portugal and Western Spain early next week.