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Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning

Harry October 31, 2024

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Polls in Arizona remain tight, including a new poll showing former President Donald Trump with a four-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris. oscillation state where ballot measures on immigration and abortion will play key roles.

Trump maintained his lead over Harris in Arizona. (Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

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Basic Information

Trump up 51-47% among likely voters in Cooperative Election Study questionnaire published this week (2,066 respondents) — a large-scale survey sponsored by universities and conducted by YouGov.

Some other polls also show a tight race: Harris leads Trump by 48% to 47% on CNN/SSRS questionnaire Trump leads Marist 50-49 percent on Tuesday questionnaire Likely voter ratings released Thursday with Harris up 49.1%-48.8% on Bloomberg/Morning Consult likely voter survey Released Wednesday — virtual ties that take into account the polls’ margins of error (4.4 points for CNN/SSRS, 3.7 points for Marist and three points for Bloomberg).

Meanwhile, Trump is ahead of Harris by 2.1 points. five thirty eightThe weighted polling average makes Trump more likely to take back the state after Biden won the state in a 2020 upset.

According to last week’s Washington Post-Schar School poll, Trump has a three-point lead, 49% to 46%. questionnaire number of likely voters (margin of error 5).

The former president also had a 51-48% advantage over Harris. CBS/YouGov Trump maintains a lead among voters who see the economy and borders as key factors, while Harris leads with voters who see abortion and democracy as key issues.

Among likely Latino voters in Arizona, Harris led Trump 56 percent to 42 percent, according to the CBS poll. a little smaller President Joe Biden’s lead in 2020 (more) 30% 80% of Arizona residents are Hispanic or Latino.)

Trump leads Harris by a slightly larger margin of five points (51%-46%) in the New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll questionnaire It was announced on October 12, in line with the vice president’s four-point lead in September (margin of error 4).

Trump has an advantage over Harris in Arizona on the economy. Times He noted that the former president had a narrow view of who could best help the working class.

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Ballot Initiatives on Immigration and Abortion Could Decide Arizona

Arizona voters will vote in state elections Abortion Rights InitiativeThis would codify abortion rights in the state constitution. A migration and border law enforcement measure—Also on the ballot will be legislation that would make it a state crime to illegally cross the Arizona border from Mexico, allowing state police to arrest and detain immigrants and state judges to deport them. As with similar initiatives, Harris and Democrats are counting on the abortion vote to prove they’re successful seven other states where they’re ready to vote — Trump hopes for the same on the border enforcement measure. Immigration is a leading issue in Arizona. Associated Press The report noted that frustration over illegal immigration continues in the state. Increase in immigrant crossings.

Key Background

Trump, who won Arizona in 2016, lost the battleground state to Biden by just 10,457 votes in 2020. Despite his loss, Trump declared victory in Arizona and It was later claimed The entire voter database for Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, has been wiped. Republican officials overseeing the election denied Trump’s claim, and Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer characterized Trump’s statement this way: “unbalanced.” Trump also tried to pressure former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) to overturn the election, telling the governor in a phone call that the results would swing in his favor if enough fraudulent votes were detected. Washington Post reported. Trump is battling Harris in six other states as well as Arizona. All left tightly debated.