Gold and silver prices in India are currently trading near record levels during the Diwali festive season. MCX gold rate almost rose ₹10 grams is 80,000, silver prices are approximately ₹99,000 per kilogram after a short period of time ₹1,00,000 marks at the beginning of this month.

Gold has made a significant return of over 33.5 per cent and is up more than 200 percent since Dhanteras last year. ₹20,000 per 10 grams. SilverHowever, it outperformed gold, with a significant rise of over 40.5% in the same period.

Buying precious metals in India gold Silver and silver are considered auspicious during Diwali and this tradition has led to a significant increase in retail demand across the country. Considering that silver surpassed gold in terms of returns last year, the question arises: Will this trend continue in the upcoming Samvat 2081?

Gold and Silver: What should you buy?

Data shows that silver has outperformed gold in the last two years. Analysts expect both gold and silver to continue their record-breaking rise next year.

“We believe in a further rise in silver for the next two-three years. Silver prices are fundamentally and technically well positioned to outperform gold in light of a variety of factors. During gold prices Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisory, said, “A good rise may be seen in the near term, investors may need to remain cautious against the yellow metal in the second half of 2025.”

According to Kedia, silver prices are expected to exceed $70 per ounce in the next 2-3 years, driven by fundamental factors such as a widening supply gap, rising industrial demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, and rising geopolitical tensions.

He added that, combined with shrinking global inventories, difficulties in mining production and currency fluctuations, these fundamentals provide strong support for silver’s upward trajectory.

Kedia is waiting MCX gold price to be around ₹85,000 per 10 grams in the next one year, MCX silver price target is ₹1,30,000 per kg for the same period.

“Silver prices are expected to rise in 2024, driven by a widening global supply gap of 215.3 Moz and strong industrial demand from sectors such as photovoltaics (232 Moz) and electric vehicles. While the 44% increase in China’s silver consumption for green technologies increases the pressure on supply, mine production is falling and stocks are depleted. Geopolitical tensions, speculative demand and the tightening silver/gold ratio also support the upward trend. “With increased usage in electronics, power grids and EVs, and a weak US dollar, silver prices could potentially reach $72 in the long term,” he said.

techniques

From a technical perspective, silver prices appear poised for a major breakout, supported by long-term technical patterns and Fibonacci retracement levels.

“The price is currently hovering above the Ichimoku cloud, confirming bullish momentum. A break above the $30 neckline could push Silver towards $41.50; A sustainable move above this could push it towards $49.82 and eventually $71.98; levels in the long term as long as prices are above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of $22.50 on a fundamental Fibonacci basis,” Kedia said.

Referring to why gold prices may underperform silver in the next one-year period, Kedia underlined the main reasons such as the expectation that interest rate cuts will slow down. US Federal Reserveincreased open positions of speculators, increased hedging activities of producers and other technical factors.

“Historical data shows a correction in gold prices US Presidential elections. Moreover, current technical data shows that the RSI is above 80, signaling profit booking in gold rates. The strengthening of the US dollar may put further pressure on bullion prices. “This pushes us to be cautious about gold prices in the second half of 2025,” he said.

Keeping all these factors in mind, Kedia recommends buying silver in the long term as it is expected to outperform gold.

On the contrary, Chintan Mehta, Chief Executive Officer of Abans Holdings, is more optimistic about gold prices.

“As inflation stabilizes and central banks begin to reduce interest rates, the low interest rate environment will increase further.” gold demand more. We believe that gold comes to the fore in times of uncertainty. This is a complete safe haven, unlike silver, which always has an industrial component to it, which adds an extra layer of risk. “So when reliability is sought when markets like stocks or real estate are not doing well, gold often comes out on top,” Mehta said.

In the short term, he expects gold rates to decline due to profit taking or delays in interest rate cuts, but these declines will act as buying opportunities.

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Disclaimer: The opinions and recommendations expressed above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms and not Mint. We recommend that investors consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.