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(FOX Weather)

Updated Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 10 a.m. ET

One of these large low pressure areas is expected to form in the southern Caribbean Sea this week. There is considerable consensus among various computer predictions that a vortex-type system will develop, but there is little consensus on what will happen next.

Remember the Central American Gyre (CAG), which we have encountered several times this year. This is a version of the same type of large-scale circulation, but concentrated on the water between Central America and Colombia. And just like CAG, it could eventually develop into an organized tropical depression or tropical storm.

For much of this week, strong winds will blow across the Gulf of Mexico and the northern Caribbean, with the only possible development remaining in the south. As the model improves through next weekend, some long-range computer forecasts suggest a more favorable environment for an organized tropical system to develop.

Area to watch in the Caribbean Sea next week.

(National Hurricane Center / NOAA)

The National Hurricane Center says at this point there is at least a chance of a tropical depression forming in the low range within the next seven days. As always, there is a high level of uncertainty even when a system has not yet begun to form.

If it develops around next weekend, there is even greater uncertainty as to where an organized system might follow. A northward track cannot be ruled out, but a weak system meandering through the Caribbean seems likely. In any case, we will monitor developments throughout the week.

If an organized tropical system develops, strengthens, and acquires a name, it will become Tropical Storm Patty.