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Here’s Who Is Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls?

Harry October 27, 2024

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Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, according to two new polls; but most polls show a tight race for the White House, making the race extremely unpredictable with less than two weeks until Election Day.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event at Divine Faith Ministries International. … (+) October 20 in Jonesboro, Georgia.

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Basic Information

Harris leads Trump by four points, 51 percent to 47 percent ABC/Ipsos poll The share of likely voters announced Sunday is up slightly from the 50-48% margin in early October. CBS/YouGov Polling Sunday shows Harris up 50%-49%; this is a shift from the vice president’s 51-48% lead in mid-October (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5 and the CBS poll had a margin of error of 2.6).

Emerson College Survey survey (October 23-24) published on saturday The two candidates are tied at 49% (the poll has a margin of error of 3), after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% a week ago, marking the first time Harris hasn’t led in Emerson’s weekly poll It’s been happening since August.

Trump and Harris are deadlocked at 48% among likely voters in Times/Siena questionnaire The Times says the results published Friday (margin of error 2.2) are “not encouraging” for Harris, as Democrats won the popular vote in the last election despite losing the White House.

The poll shows a decline in support for Harris since a previous poll conducted by The Times in early October, which showed her with a 49% to 46% lead over Trump. At least three polls in the past week show Trump with a narrow advantage, and six others show Trump holding a narrow advantage. He found Harris ahead.

The candidates are also dead-on at 47%, according to CNN/SSRS. questionnaire Released on Friday (margin of error 3.1), this also represents a bearish trend for Harris; This increased Trump’s lead from 48% to 47% in the groups’ September poll, while the poll conducted just after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race found Trump at 49%. and Harris with 46%..

Trump ahead 48 percent to 46 percent CNBC research The proportion of registered voters reported Thursday (margin of error is 3.1) and he is ahead by a margin of 47 percent to 45 percent. Wall Street Magazine Wednesday’s registered voter poll results (margin of error 2.5) — a shift in Trump’s favor since August. Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51 percent to 49 percent, among national voters, including voters leaning toward one candidate. HarrisX/Forbes research It was announced on Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) and rose one point from 49% to 48% without the so-called leans.

Some other recent polls also show Harris ahead: Monmouth University survey Of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also reported Wednesday, Harris had a 47-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, compared with It was 47-44. While choosing “other,” 5% chose neither candidate.

Harris up three points from 49% to 46%, according to Economist/YouGov questionnaire The proportion of likely voters who had third-party candidates on the ballot was also released on Wednesday (margin of error 3) and respondents were given the options of “other,” “not sure” or “wouldn’t vote.” leading in the groups’ previous poll conducted Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult survey weekly survey It was released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, though it had a 51-45% lead in the two previous polls from last week.

Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, but Harris’ advantage has narrowed slightly over the past two months, reaching 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight. weighted voting average

Important Reminder: Presidential Polls Are Often Wrong

And there’s a lot of speculation this year about how wrong they were and who it might benefit. read all about it in this story.

Who Do Polls Predict to Win the Election: Harris or Trump?

Trump had 53 wins out of 100, compared to Harris’ 47, according to FiveThirtyEight. election prediction.

Big Number

1.4. This shows how many points Harris leads Trump on FiveThirtyEight voting average. Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics voting average While it showed Trump ahead by 0.1 points, Nate Silver put Harris ahead by 1.3 points Silver Bulletin forecast.

How Is Harris Performing Against Trump in Swing States?

Harris leads Michigan And NevadaWhile Trump is leading Wisconsin, Pennsylvania And North Carolina-even though it’s all within the margin of error- Georgia And Arizona They are connected.

Surprising Fact

A survey from: NBC News The report, published on September 29, revealed that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, her lead has narrowed. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54 percent supporting Harris, 40 percent supporting Trump and 6 percent unsure who to vote for. NBC said support for Harris is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, but remains significantly lower than past leads held by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Pre-debate polls find Harris’s polling surge looks steady, including from NPR/PBS/Marist questionnaire The count of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%; This rate decreased compared to the three point difference in August. Most post-debate polls show a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but that’s not enough to significantly impact the horse race between the two. New York Times/Siena questionnaire The 67 percent of likely voters released on September 19 found that a majority of voters in every demographic group viewed Harris’s debate performance on September 10 favorably; Overall, 67 percent said Harris did a good job, while 40 percent said the same for Trump. Harris gained 52-46% among likely voters and 51-47% among registered voters. ABC News/Ipsos poll It was taken a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, and probably didn’t show much change from his six-point lead with voters. end of august And early august ABC/Ipsos polls—although 63% of Americans He said Harris won argument.

Key Background

Biden dropping out of school He called it quits on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. HE approved immediately He and Harris announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around him, and 99% of Democratic delegates voted to officially nominate him in a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced he had chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’s rise in the polls has been combined with increased Democrats’ enthusiasm for the election. almost doubled Since Harris joined the race, 85% has risen from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has held steady at 71%, according to Monmouth University. questionnaire It was released on August 14.