It’s been a good year for Aviva (LSE:AV) share price and approximate time. Shares were idle and loyal investors deserved to have some fun.

Aviva shares are up 20.16% over the last 12 months, easily outperforming the stock. FTSE100increased by 11.48% in that period. But at 475p they are still lower than they were a decade ago when they were trading at 500p. It’s been a long wait.

However, long-term investors should not feel in a very difficult situation because they will have recovered. bags of income along the way. Today, the latest return is 7.11%. This is quite impressive considering the recent share price rise. The latest price-earnings ratio is 12.74.

A great FTSE 100 income stock

Low valuations and high returns appear to be the default setting for FTSE 100 financial services companies at the moment. This may reflect the turbulent times we are going through, with the pandemic and cost of living crisis impacting sales and stock prices.

I expect this to change as inflation declines and interest rates potentially follow suit. As savings rates and bond yields start to fall, I think big yielders like Aviva will look more attractive to income seekers.

I’ve been saying this for a while now, but it hasn’t been put to the test yet as central bankers are still wary of a rate cut. Goldman Sachs It predicts that base interest rates in the UK could fall from 5% today to 2.75% this time next year. If true, this would certainly be good for Aviva.

Borrowing costs should be reduced boost stock marketsThis will increase the value of assets under management and make customers feel better.

The average target of 14 analysts offering a 12-month price target for Aviva plc is 546.5 pence per share. If they’re right, investors can expect another 15% growth next year. With the yield forecast reaching 7.3%, total returns could rise above 20% again.

I’d like to see more dividend coverage

I’m a little concerned that Aviva’s estimated dividend is only covered by 1.3x earnings. I’m reassured by the recent performance of consistent dividend growth, although the board is taking the opportunity to re-base this after the pandemic year. Let’s see what the chart says.

Chart by TradingView

The board was also confident enough to announce a 7% increase in the provisional dividend, announced in the first half results on 14 August, to 11.9 pence.

Aviva has set high standards for itself. First-half statutory profit rose 58% to £645 million, but it will need to maintain its pace of growth to keep investors happy. If shares fall short, shares are likely to fall.

Aviva has a growing role in workplace pensions, CEO Allison Kirkby highlighted this. If Labor makes additional national insurance payments in the autumn budget, there is a risk that employers will reduce their contributions.

I personally have overexposure to the insurance industry as I own shares in both Legal and General Group And Group Only. If it wasn’t so, I would buy Aviva immediately.