jalen hurts

jalen hurts continued its heavy use in the red zone and achieved a massive 19 rush attempts It ranks sixth in the league this season. This match should be played with a sub-par penalty shootout Bengals defense and the Eagles’ high-scoring offense.

eagles should often be in the red zone. Anytime I can get Hurts’ TD chances this high in a high-scoring game, I’ll take them.

Pick: Jalen Always Suffers TD Scorer (+165)

Packers and Jaguars

Christian Kirk

Christian Kirkproduction depends on human health Evan Engram.

Kirk’s five in Engram’s three healthy games. catches 13 targets for 93 reception area. He ranks third on the team in goal share with 16.9%. In the four games Engram missed, Kirk recorded 20 catches on 29 targets for 227 receiving yards. He ranks second on the team in target share at 20.1% and is only marginally behind rookie Brian Thomas Jr. (21%) for the team lead. With Engram disabled, Kirk’s route participation increased by 4%.

This encounter is difficult for Kirk. He lined up in the slot for over 80% of his routes, and Green Bay was stingy with slot receivers. Packers Rank in the top 10 in fewest yards per target, yards per route run, and yards per reception against slot targets. They have handed over a number of target receivers from that spot, but I have concerns about Kirk’s volume.

I expect Kirk to continue to see minimal opportunities with Engram healthy, and Green Bay has limited slot receivers well on a target basis.

Pick: Christian Kirk Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Tyreek Hill

Tua Tagovailoa should be back this week, which means Tyreek Hill There should be no extra money to get points.

Hill scored 13 goals last season and scored in most of the matches. This week, the Dolphins face Arizona’s poor defense, which remains one of the league’s best offenses last season with Tagovailoa.

My actual odds are around -120, making it a great bet with plus money.

Pick: Tyreek Hill All-Time TD Score (+110)

Jets vs. Patriots

Demario Douglas

I’m taking Demario Douglas off last week because he was sick and played a season-low 33% of the time. Douglas has been taken off the injury report, so he should be back to full performance this week. This means we get to see more of the potentially awesome Drake Maye-Douglas connection.

CBS Sports’ Jacob Gibbs noted that Douglas had a 40.5% target share while playing with Maye. In Maye’s first start in Week 6, he had six catches on nine targets for 92 yards. That was nearly twice as many targets as the next closest pass catcher (Hunter Henryfive).

This matchup also creates a good environment for Douglas. Jets Coverage of gamesmen is at the fifth highest rate. They play Cover 1 more than other coverages, and Douglas has a 20.5% target share and a 26% targets per route against man coverage, both leading the team. He’s only at 13% and against the zone, but against Cover 1 Douglas has a 22.2% target share and a 27% target rate per run. Nearly half of Douglas’ catches this season (12 out of 26) have come against Cover 1.

Pick: Demario Douglas Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)

Ravens vs. Browns

Jerry Jeudy

Those watching the game recording will not be affected Jerry JeudyCleveland’s performance in its first game since then Amari Cooper trade. He caught just one of five targets and finished the game with 18 yards.

So why did I love this week’s buyer support?

Where did four of these five goals come from? James Winston On Cleveland’s final drive of the game. With Deshaun Watson and with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at center, Jeudy had only one goal in the first 56 minutes of the match. I know it’s a small sample size, but it’s enough for me to think Jeudy will be the Browns’ WR1 with Winston under center.

Maybe more importantly, browns They’re at home and facing the league’s best funnel matchup. ravens We are first in the NFL rush meter allowed per match and dies in last place passing meter allowed.

Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Saints vs. Chargers

J. K. Dobbins

saints They gave up 146.7 rushing yards per game, third-most in the NFL, and now Chargers A team that has fully embraced the field game under the management of Jim Harbaugh.

Dobbins has covered the 75.5 yard mark in three of six games this season and is averaging 79.6 yards per game. Considering the Saints’ weakness against the run, this game is ripe for a big contest. J. K. Dobbins game.

Pick: JK Dobbins Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

Bills vs. Seahawks

Kenneth Walker

Kenneth Walker it became absolute goal He’s scoring in all but one game this season, scoring an incredible seven goals in five games.

Seahawks They are currently a pass-oriented team, but this changes in the red zone. Additionally, Walker is still very much involved in the passing game, making him a huge threat to score goals both from the ground and in the air.

Invoices They have a good defense this season but have been bad against the run, I expect Walker to take advantage of that.

Walker has just over a 60% chance of scoring, making it a great bet.

Pick: Kenneth Walker All-TD Scorer (-110)

Chiefs vs. Raiders

Brock Bowers

chefs They may be 6-0, but they gave up a league-high 83.5 yards to tight ends.

Without Davante Adamsor many good reception options, honestly, it became the Brock Bowers show in Las Vegas. The rookie has reached double-digit targets in every game over the last three weeks and is averaging 68 yards per game.

Pick: Brock Bowers Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)