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    • Tropical Storm Sara may threaten Florida as a hurricane
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    Tropical Storm Sara may threaten Florida as a hurricane

    Harry Posted on

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    • Tropical Depression formed on the morning of Thursday Nineteenth
    • The system is expected to become a tropical Storm Sara later today
    • It’s too early to tell how strong it will become or whether it will threaten Florida.

    Tropical Storm Sara formed this afternoon and is threatening to bring “life-threatening and potentially devastating flooding and landslides” to Honduras through the weekend. National Hurricane Center. Forecasters said a swing toward Florida was still possible.

    “We now expect this storm to spend more time over Central America. This will reduce the intensity of the wind before it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. This storm may be pulled northeast by an area of ​​high pressure leaving over Florida. The decrease in the jet stream across the central U.S. will create a path for this storm to be deflected toward Florida,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said in an email newsletter.

    “We could see heavy rainfall and flooding concerns in parts of central and south Florida next week,” he said. “Florida does not need more tropical storm impact. Many people are still recovering and trying to rebound from the hurricane earlier this year.”

    The NHC’s forecast expects Tropical Storm Sara to weaken into a tropical depression by Monday, while still over Central America, to re-enter the Gulf of Mexico where it could regain strength.

    “If it has spent days overland, that could mean confluence with a less defined low front, with impacts mostly in the form of showers and thunderstorms across the state,” he said. Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist for Tallahassee-based WeatherTiger.

    “A legitimate hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula is a realistic scenario if it lingers over Central America at all or spends a limited amount of time. Most likely, this contingent threat will be focused on Southwest Florida or the Keys, with the potential for cross-impact in Southeast Florida as in 1999.” “Like Irene or Wilma in 2005,” he said.

    ➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Nineteen

    ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

    It is rare for November hurricanes to make landfallbut these things happened. Next Named the storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season It would be Sara.

    Here is the latest update from the NHC as of 1pm EST on Thursday, November 14:

    Tropical Storm Sara: What you need to know

    Special note about NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path to the center of the storm. It does not show the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    • Location: 15.7N 82.9W, approximately 325 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 50 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border
    • Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
    • Current movement: West at 12 mph
    • Minimum central pressure: 999MB

    How strong is Tropical Storm Sara and where is it headed?

    At 1:00 a.m. EST (18:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was spotted by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.7 North and longitude 82.9 West. The system is moving westward at approximately 12 mph (19 km/h). This movement is expected to continue today and the center will move closer to the coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to move near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

    Data from Air Force Reserve aircraft show maximum sustained winds increasing to approximately 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible if the system remains afloat.

    Tropical storm-force winds extend outward from the center as much as 70 miles (115 km), primarily in the northern hemisphere.

    Based on Dropsonde data, the estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

    Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara

    Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include a range of estimators and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help it make its forecasts.

    ➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara

    Hours, warnings given

    For an explanation of what watches and alerts mean, go to the bottom of this story.

    Tropical storm warning:

    • The northern coast of Honduras forms Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
    • Gulf Islands of Honduras

    Tropical storm watch:

    • Nicaragua’s northeastern coast from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

    Will Tropical Storm Sara be the next hurricane to hit Florida?

    While some models suggest this could hit the state, it’s too early to tell whether that will happen.

    In the NHC’s latest update, forecasters said a strong mid-level ridge is directing the system westward toward Central America and that the storm will meander after the ridge breaks this weekend.

    Important messages from the National Hurricane Center

    • Heavy rains early next week will cause life-threatening flooding and landslides in parts of Central America, primarily in Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua.
    • Tropical storm conditions are expected for parts of the northern coast of Honduras and the neighboring Gulf Islands, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
    • The system is expected to approach Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early next week, where there is a risk of high winds. Residents of these areas should follow the latest forecast updates.
    • It is too early to determine what impacts the system could bring to parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, during the middle part of next week. Residents of these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

    Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Sara be?

    • From 10 am: 35 mph
    • 12 hours: 40 mph
    • 24 hours: 45 mph, near shore
    • 36 hours: 45 mph, near shore
    • 48 hours: 45 mph, near shore
    • 60 hours: 50 mph, near shore
    • 72 hours: 50 mph, on water
    • 96 hours: 35 mph, inland
    • 120 hours: 35 mph, on water

    What impact might Tropical Storm Sara have?

    PRECIPITATION: By early next week, rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches are expected in northern Honduras, with isolated storm totals around 30 inches. These rainfalls will lead to large areas of life-threatening and potentially devastating flooding and landslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. In the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain by early next week, with localized totals around 15 inches. This would lead to flash flooding, which could perhaps be significant, as well as the potential for landslides.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possibly the watch area later today.

    STORM WAVE: Storm surge could raise water levels along the nearshore by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas with onshore winds along the north coast of Honduras. Large and destructive waves will accompany the surge near the coast.

    National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?

    Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said the shaded areas on the tropical outlook map show “areas where a tropical cyclone, which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane, could develop.”

    The colors make it clear how likely a system with low yellow, medium orange, and high red could develop.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical advisories until a named storm has formed, but there is one exception.

    “If a system is close to land and has the potential to develop, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing advisories, even if the system has not developed into a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

    When is hurricane season in Florida?

    Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms passing near your city

    Extreme rainfall forecast

    Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text

    What do watches and warnings mean?

    A Tornado Watch means tornado conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is usually issued 48 hours before the first expected appearance of tropical storm-force winds that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, usually within 48 hours.

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to make sure you’re always connected to the news. And call for us special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated with new information.)

    Harry
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