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    • How did the election polls turn out? Pollster says one thing is ‘very clear’
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    How did the election polls turn out? Pollster says one thing is ‘very clear’

    Harry Posted on

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    President-elect Donald Trump made a largely stunning political comeback performs better than polls I expected him to win the third election in a row.

    In the days leading up to election day, survey after survey showed him running neck and neck with the Vice President Kamala Harris. State officials made predictions results may take days. Lawsuits filed from groups close to Trump ready to challenge the results. In the end the race was called before most. The country woke up on Wednesday. Trump won and it wasn’t particularly close.

    But the results of this election clarified the growing theory of why polls are underestimating Trump’s performance, according to the Pew Research Center’s vice president for methodology and innovation. Courtney Kennedy: Democrats participate in polls more than Republicans.

    “Instead of saying, ‘Oh, we don’t know what’s going on,’ no, no, no, that’s obvious,” Kennedy said in an interview with USA TODAY. “This election answered the question of whether the basic pattern in which Democrats are more likely to turn out in polls than Republicans is still with us. The answer is: It is still with us, and in some parts of the country it may have gotten worse.”

    ‘Why I was wrong’: Allan Lichtman cannot correctly predict the outcome of the election

    Polls shocked people in previous elections

    before TrumpFormer President Barack Obama beat predictions that he would defeat Mitt Romney in 2012.

    Popular pollster in 2016 five thirty eight It showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 45.7% to 41.8% on Election Day. In 2020, President Biden led Trump. 8.4 percentage pointsa big lead in what still ended up being a close race.

    Pew Research Center has previously reported that the number of pollsters is increasing and survey methods are becoming more diverse. 2016 election.

    Pew has had some success with its own surveys through a variety of methods, Kennedy said. A major annual survey conducted in the spring found some social trends emerging on election night, including young men turning toward Republicans and the share of Republicans rising nationwide.

    Which polls were right and wrong in this election?

    Kennedy said polls were better this election than in recent years, and understanding their limitations could help pollsters make further adjustments in future elections.

    “There was progress, but it wasn’t perfect,” he said, explaining that some pollsters were considering weighted adjustments to account for the lack of turnout from Republicans. “It’s not a silver bullet, it doesn’t make the survey perfect, but it does help reduce the pattern of nonresponse that we’re struggling with.”

    He also noted that Trump’s outperformance compared to polls may be large on a cumulative, national scale, but the latest numbers may show individual races are more accurate. He pointed to California, where votes are still being counted, and said he expects those numbers to be close to what polls suggest for the state.

    Polls are used not only to show voters’ support for candidates, but also to see what voters care about most in this election. Surveys In general, we showed that economy It was the biggest problem for them and they chose Trump to help solve it. Kennedy said that polls also show dissatisfaction with the Biden administration and the direction the country is heading.

    However It marks a change from the Biden administration It’s something Harris struggled to do during her short presidential campaign.

    “This election has shown that polls better reflect important issues, what motivates people, and moods and feelings about candidates than they can,” Kennedy said.

    Contributed by: Phillip M. Bailey, Joey Garrison

    Kinsey Crowley is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach him at [email protected] and follow him on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.

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