Even before the US presidential polls closed on Tuesday night, Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir tweeted in English: “Yes, flags.

Yes

— איתמר בן גביר (@itamarbengvir) 6 November 2024

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was a little slower to congratulate Trump on his victory in the US presidential election, the first world leader to do so, and framed Trump’s victory as “a strong commitment to the grand alliance between Israel and America.”

Dear Donald and Melania Trump,

Congratulations on the biggest comeback in history!

Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a strong commitment to the grand alliance between Israel and America.

This is a huge victory!

In true friendship… pic.twitter.com/B54NSo2BMA

— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) 6 November 2024

Two days before this week’s elections, in which former US President Donald Trump staged one of the wildest political comebacks in recent history, leading the Republican Party to a landslide victory, Israeli media polls showed that Trump had already won the hearts and minds of many. Israel.

When asked who they would like to see in the White House, almost 65 percent of respondents said they preferred Trump over rival Kamala Harris. The difference was even more pronounced among those who identified as Jews; 72 percent of those surveyed said they were Jewish. Israel Democracy Institute They thought a Trump presidency would better serve Israel’s interests.

This is a new move against Republicans. A similar survey conducted by the same organization in 2020 showed: 63 percent of Israelis The eventual winner chose Trump over Joe Biden.

Celebrating Trump’s victory in Israel is likely another twist of the knife for Vice President Kamala Harris, who polls show has been hit by her administration’s unflinching, if sometimes critical, support for Israel’s war in Gaza and its refusal to halt military aid It means. his defeat.

A ‘turning point moment’

“People are celebrating now,” pollster and former Netanyahu political aide Mitchell Barak, among others, told Al Jazeera from Jerusalem. “I mean, you’ve seen the polls, people see this as a win for Israel and Netanyahu. He (Netanyahu) gambled on this, thinking it would have to last until November and the Trump victory, and that gamble turned out to be correct.

“In Israel, people see this as a turning point,” he said.

Before the 2020 elections, Trump told US voters that “the Jewish state has never had a better friend in the White House than your president, Donald J Trump” in order to win Jewish votes.

In this one, unlike many of the former US president’s statements, he actually turned out to be true.

Trump defied international norms during his first term as president, recognizing the occupied Golan Heights (Syrian territory two-thirds of which is occupied by Israel) as Israeli territory, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, then moving the US embassy and establishing a pro-government earthworm. -The settler ambassador is there.

Strengthening Israel’s position in the region, the US president also initiated the agreement he called the Abraham Accords; this led to the normalization of relations between Israel and four Arab states; Bahrain, UAE, Morocco and Sudan in exchange for US concessions and, in many cases, access to Israeli cutting-edge technologies intelligence and weapons technology.

More recently, Trump has emphasized his desire to rebuild the warm relationship he enjoyed with Netanyahu during his first presidency in July of this year, when he welcomed the Israeli prime minister to his Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago.

In contrast, although the Biden administration’s relations with Netanyahu were strong, they cooled during the 13-month war in Gaza.

First, there were repeated US “concerns” about Israel’s campaign against Gaza, which has so far killed 43,391 people, mostly women and children, with thousands more missing and presumed dead under rubble. Biden also had red lines regarding Israel’s subsequent occupation of Rafah. And finally, the US government’s latest demands to allow aid to northern Gaza, where aid agencies say it is on the brink of famine. All this seems to have bothered the Israeli prime minister, who in March this year went so far as to say that US President Biden, who backed Israel’s war on Gaza with his fearless military and diplomatic support, was “wrong” in his criticism of Israel. Israel.

Given the pressure Netanyahu faces both at home (from people who want a ceasefire agreement in Gaza to provide a chance for the recapture of remaining Israeli captives) and abroad, where many countries are appalled by the levels of violence seen in Gaza – Analysts , says Netanyahu needs an uncritical American ally.

Is it the end of the two-state solution?

In addition to being more likely to give Netanyahu free rein over his actions in Gaza and the West Bank, as Palestinians feared after the election, Trump could also be the catalyst for putting a toll on any two-state concept. solution.

“People accuse Israeli right-wingers of never looking forward,” independent Israeli analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg said of Netanyahu and his cabinet. “And most of the time they are right. “But with Trump, they realized that his election probably meant the end of the two-state solution and the end of Gaza as we know it.”

In the United States, despite its unwavering support for Israel’s war in Gaza, the two-state solution remains – at least officially – a central tenet of the Biden administration’s foreign policy in the Middle East; Oslo Accords in the 1990s.

In mid-May, Biden doubled down on long-standing American policy: Describes a graduation ceremony in Georgia: “I’m working to make sure we finally reach a two-state solution.”

But just a few weeks ago, Trump appeared to take the opposite stance, telling Time magazine: “Most people thought it was going to be a two-state solution. “I’m no longer sure a two-state solution will work.”

Trump’s approach reflected the Middle East peace plan he called the “deal of the century” and presented in 2020 towards the end of his first administration. To some observers, this appeared to be Israel’s wish list.

Inside, among other measuresTrump has called for recognizing most of Israel’s illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, accepting a unified Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, denying the right of return for Palestinian refugees, and demilitarizing Palestine if it is granted state status. confirmed its intention to provide

With the newly returned Trump now in charge of both the House of Congress and the Supreme Court, there are no legislative or judicial obstacles preventing the incoming Trump administration from delivering on what the outgoing Trump administration promised.

“Trump doesn’t care. “It’s not relevant,” Flaschenberg said of Gaza and Lebanon, where Israel has launched devastating attacks against the political group Hezbollah in recent weeks, killing 3,002 Lebanese civilians so far in the process. “The only thing new is that people claim to be surprised. They shouldn’t be. “We’ve been here before,” he said.

‘Massacre as usual’

“Netanyahu and Trump share the same genocidal agenda,” independent political scientist Ori Goldberg told Al Jazeera from inside Israel, where Al Jazeera is prohibited from reporting.

“Both are opposed to what they see as ‘progressive wokeism’ or identity politics. Moreover, they both assume that the other is a fool whom they can easily manipulate.”

But Goldberg warned that at least one leader’s assessment of the other might be wrong. “I think Netanyahu is a little short-sighted in his view of Trump.

“Trump takes great pride in his anti-war stance,” Goldberg said, suggesting that whatever promises Trump makes in 2020, practical support will likely be limited to guns and dollars.

“It is unlikely that he would approve of American boots on the ground, but let’s face it, who is accusing Israel or Israeli politicians of playing the long game?” he said. “The important thing, especially for Netanyahu, is to reach the end of that day.”

Meanwhile, Goldberg predicted little concrete change in the short term, as the weapons, aid and diplomatic support already provided by the Biden administration are difficult to improve upon.

Goldberg said, “Netanyahu will continue to do what he wants, as he always does,” and added, “There will be massacres, as always.”