Ukraine, by contrast, will likely mobilize whatever resources it has left to retain territory within Russia as a bargaining chip in future negotiations and to push back, or at least hold, existing front lines.

Whatever the outcome of both sides’ efforts, none of this bodes well for the humanitarian crisis currently unfolding in Ukraine.

WILL RUSSIA COMPLY WITH ANY PEACE TERMS?

The intensification of the conflict in Ukraine is also likely to strain relations between the United States and its allies in Europe. The fear here is that Trump will make deals with Russia through its EU and NATO allies and threaten to abandon them.

This would undermine the longevity of any agreement with Moscow. Since the beginning of the occupation, no one has been convinced that Russia would abide by the terms of a mediated peace.

The relatively dismal state of Europe’s defense capabilities and the declining reliability of the US nuclear umbrella could only encourage Putin to further his imperial ambitions after reaching an agreement with Trump.

If the United States had by then completed the strategic withdrawal from Europe that Trump envisioned to focus more on competition with China, Putin could extend his freewheeling gambit beyond Ukraine and directly threaten NATO.

If it comes to that, Trump could once again see his actions described as “historic” as the US president repeats the mistake made in 1938 by former British prime minister Neville Chamberlain in thinking he could make a “restorer” deal with Nazi Germany. peace in our time”.

Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security and Head of the Department of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Birmingham.