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AP VoteCast: Concerns about democracy lead many to go to the polls | News, Sports, Jobs
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AP VoteCast: Concerns about democracy lead many to go to the polls | News, Sports, Jobs

STEVEN VANDEBURGH VOTED at a grocery store in Lawrence, Kan., on Tuesday (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The motivations of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump voters who cast ballots in Tuesday’s presidential election were quite different; This reflects a broader national divide over the issues facing the United States.

AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of more than 115,000 voters nationwide, found that the fate of democracy is the primary factor for Vice President Harris’ supporters. It was a sign that the Democratic candidate’s messages accusing Trump of being a fascist in the closing days of his campaign may have succeeded.

By contrast, Trump’s supporters were largely focused on immigration and inflation; two issues the former Republican president has focused on since the start of his campaign. Trump promised that tariffs would bring back jobs in factories, bring more domestic oil production into the economy and lower prices.

Overall, presidential candidates’ coalitions based on race, education and community type appeared largely similar to the 2020 results. But AP VoteCast’s preliminary findings pointed to some shifts among demographic groups, including young, black and Hispanic voters, that could be meaningful for the final outcome.

Voters’ conflicting views on key priorities pose a challenge to leading the world’s leading economic and military power, regardless of who ultimately wins the election. Voters viewed each candidate’s qualifications differently. They were more likely to describe Trump as a strong leader than Harris, but Harris had an edge over him in being seen as someone with the moral character needed to be president.

Harris and Trump voters disagree on what’s important

Nearly two-thirds of Harris voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their vote. No other issue—high prices, abortion policy, the future of free speech in the country, or the potential for electing the first female president—was as important a factor to his supporters.

Trump voters were more motivated by economic issues and immigration. Nearly half of the respondents said that the biggest issue affecting their choice decisions was high prices. Many people have said this about the situation at the US-Mexico border. Only a third of Trump voters said democracy was the most important factor for their vote.

About half of his supporters described the economy and employment as the most important issue facing the country, while about a third said the most important issue was immigration.

Harris’s base, by contrast, was focused on a broader range of issues. About 3 in 10 people cited the economy as the most important issue, while about 2 in 10 mentioned abortion and about 1 in 10 mentioned health care or climate change.

Small but possibly important changes from 2020

Just like in 2020, more than 8 in 10 Trump voters were white and more than 1 in 10 were nonwhite. Harris’ coalition largely resembled the diverse group that President Joe Biden put together four years ago. About two-thirds of Harris’ supporters were white, like Biden, and about a third were non-white.

About half of women supported Harris, while about half of men supported Trump. This seems largely consistent with Biden and Trump’s holdings in 2020.

Other key elements of candidate coalitions appeared to remain in existence. More than half of voters with a college degree supported Harris, while nearly half of those without a college degree voted for Trump. Nationally, Harris performed stronger than Trump in cities and suburbs, while Trump had more support in small towns and rural areas.

The AP’s preliminary VoteCast data suggested that some groups may have shifted, and that such changes could be significant in swing states where margins are likely narrow.

One potential trend could be among younger voters whose political lives are shaped by the presence of Trump, now in his third presidential bid. Voters under the age of 30 make up a very small share of the total electorate. But about half backed Harris, compared to about 6 in 10 voters who supported Biden in 2020. Just over 4 in 10 young voters voted for Trump, up nearly a third in 2020.

Another shift that emerged was among Black and Latino voters, who appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to support Biden four years ago. About 8 in 10 Black voters supported Harris, compared to nearly 9 in 10 who supported Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was down slightly from the nearly 6 in 10 who supported Biden in 2020. Trump’s support among these groups appears to have increased slightly compared to 2020.

Most Trump and Harris voters motivated to support their candidates

Both candidates generated loyalty among their respective coalitions; This was a change from four years ago when Trump was ousted from the White House by Biden.

About half of Biden’s supporters in 2020 said their votes for him were cast against Trump, and about half said their votes were for Biden. This year, roughly two-thirds of Harris voters said they were willing to vote in her favor. Only a third voted against Trump.

Enthusiasm for Trump among his base remained constant. As in 2020, nearly 8 in 10 Trump voters said they cast their vote to support Trump, not just to oppose his opponent.

Voters favor Harris on moral character and Trump on strong leadership

Candidates had different strengths in the eyes of voters. While just over half of voters said Harris had the moral character to be president, 4 in 10 people who had the same opinion about Trump made this comment.

Nearly 6 in 10 said Trump does not have the moral character to be president; This is a reflection of his criminal convictions, his often inflammatory rhetoric, his sexist statements and actions, and his rejection of the 2020 presidential election results that fueled the results on January 6, 2021. rebel. Just under half said Harris does not have the morality to be president.

But voters gave Trump the advantage of being a strong leader. Just over half of voters called Trump a strong leader, and just under half said the same about Harris.

About 6 in 10 say Harris has the mental capacity to serve effectively as president, compared with about half who say that about Trump.

AP VoteCast is a survey of American voters conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal, and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 115,000 voters was conducted over eight days and culminated with the closing of the polls. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey polls a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; Self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from improbable online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated at plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. You can find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at:

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AP reporter Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.